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Roma will pip Inter to the Serie A crown
Forget all that noise people are making about how tense and exciting the Premier League finale was this year - over in glorious Italia, things have gone even closer to the metaphorical wire.
Inter Milan lead Roma by a single point but unlike last weekend there are no concerns regarding their opponents rolling over - they are away to Parma and Catania - the two teams squabbling over the final relegation place.
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Six reasons Inter won't win at Parma:
1. Inter have hit the self-destruct button - two weeks ago they led by six points with three games to play, now they lead by just one point going into the final day.
2. And they've got history for throwing away the title. The last time Inter were involved when the title went to the wire was in 2002 where they lost 4-2 to Lazio to fall from first to third.
3. Despite Parma starting below Catania, Inter will know they've got the harder tie - Parma have escaped relegation when looking doomed in two of the last three seasons, while Catania collapse in the second-half of the season.
4. The last four times Parma's final game of the season has been at home they've won.
5. And Inter have only won on three of their last 19 visits to Parma.
6. Inter have only won two of their last seven Serie A away games.
Five reasons Roma will beat Catania to complete their half of the bargain:
1. Since Catania's promotion, Roma have won the three league matches between the two without conceding, whilst scoring 11.
2. Roma have lost just won of their last 14 league games.
3. While Catania have won just three of their last 21 Serie A matches.
4. And this is a common theme, last season they proved they are the masters of the post-Christmas collapse, falling from fourth to 13th with three wins in their last 18 games.
5. Roma are able to hold their nerve on the final day - the last two times they've been in with a chance of winning the title on the final day (00-01 and 01-02) they have won their match.
And five reasons why Fiorentina and not Milan will qualify for the Champions League:
1. Fiorentina have won their last four matches with Torino.
2. And Torino have pretty much nothing to play for right now.
3. Torino have won just three of 19 games against teams in the top half.
4. They have also lost four of their last six home games, the third-worst record in the league.
5. Even if Fiorentina do stumble in Turin, Udinese beat Milan at the San Siro last year and have won there three times in the last seven years.
Serie A winner, best odds
