Awards Betting

Mercury Prize

It's not often that men in drainpipes can sit around talking to androgynous braless women about obscure records without getting bludgeoned to death by a gang of bloodthirsty street kids, so let's allow them to enjoy debating the Mercury Prize. Formerly, of course, the Mercury Music Prize, the people at Mercury presumably felt that the inclusion of "music" made the whole thing far too rigid, or post ironic, or pre-new romantic. Or something. Oh, who cares?

The entrants, from most likely to win to least, read like so...

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Burial - Untrue
All the clamour from the underground is that Burial – not his birth name, weirdly - went to the same school as one of the guys from (2006 nominees) Hot Chip. It must be a sign. His nomination initially smacked of a load of industry idiots sitting in a fusty industry bar desperately figuring out how they can appear cool again, especially to the kids. After all, honestly, does anyone really like dubstep? Apparently so, he's the favourite, and might follow in the footsteps of dance floor artists like Roni Size (1997) and Dizzee Rascal (2003) by winning the thing.

Radiohead - In Rainbows
Always the bridesmaids and never the bride, Radiohead have already been up for the award in 1997, 2001 and 2003 and not given it, probably for being too damn well known. That said, the beard-stroking music critics went all wobbly when they got hold of this, mainly because the album embraced technology to the point of starting life as a download only - that makes it so painfully hip that it could/should have just blown your mind. One to watch.

Elbow - The Seldom Seen Kid
Another band that have already enjoyed the dizzying head rush of a nomination - back in 2001, when they lost out to PJ Harvey - Elbow have the look of the Kaiser Chiefs, only after twenty-five years on the road. This would make for a very dull winner indeed.

The Last Shadow Puppets - The Age of Understatement
A super group, The Last Shadow Puppets are made up of that sarcastic oik Alex Turner from Arctic Monkeys (winners, 2006) and his friend Miles Kane from Liverpool band The Rascals, who looks/sounds almost exactly like him. The album was a critical success, but a side-project taking the award seems unlikely, especially as Turner's Arctic Monkeys are held in such high esteem by the kind of idiots who find these things important.

Adele - 19
Like Amy Winehouse, Adele went to the Brit school, and like Amy Winehouse, when she opens her mouth to sing, out comes a voice somewhere in the region Billie Holiday - who, of course, was a legendary US jazz singer. Unlike Amy Winehouse, she steers clear of slashing mindlessly at her own limbs with razor blades, and taking the vapour produced from burning crack cocaine into her lungs. Even so, like Amy Winehouse last year, she won’t win the Mercury Prize.

Laura Marling - Alas, I Cannot Swim
Laura is an 18-year-old folk singer, who sounds like she's about 40 and really had it with the kids. This, parents, is what happens when teenagers spend too much time locked away reading books by authors who aren't Jordan or Sharon Osbourne - if there's going to be an interesting outsider for the prize, this is it.

Robert Plant and Alison Krauss - Raising Sand
Ahh, what's this? It's the entry that your trendy boss might like - after all, he smokes dope at the weekends, and sometimes almost has a beard happening on his face. Of course, these guys are presumably already booked in for the Jools Holland Hootenanny, and like the crusty duet of Isobel Campbell and Mark Lanegan (nominated, 2006), they won't win. They're just too old.

British Sea Power - Do You Like Rock Music?
Naval gazing indie rock, these young gents sound a little bit like Coldplay, only with slightly more up-to-date haircuts and less passive aggression. They met while they were at university, their album just about crept into the top ten earlier in the year, and that makes them far too middle-of-the-road for the edgier members of the panel, who prefer their rock bands to have a swearword in their name, or at least a junkie on bass. Come ceremony day, they would be wise to attack the free drinks without fear of having to do a speech.

Neon Neon - Stainless Style
The first ever victors were Primal Scream in 1992, who had embraced zany bleeping noises and syncopated beats with their rock music. Unfortunately, this, by a bloke from Super Furry Animals and his technological sidekick, just isn't very good. In fact, it's rubbish... some might argue.

Estelle - Shine
The last time a female RnB artist won, it was 2002 (Ms. Dynamite) and it made for a startling about-turn from an awards show that tended to avoid urban music. Unfortunately, that was then, and now Estelle's brand of pop/soul is definitely too chartable for the pipe smoking women who take time to vote for this thing.

Rachel Unthank and the Winterset - The Bairns
Totally weird, there is something deeply unsettling about this group, who appear lost in the 1940s in look, but singing futuristic 1950s melancholic folk songs in sound. Even the deeply fashionable judges with their angular hairstyles and drainpipe jeans will find this group far too odd.

Portico Quartet - Knee Deep in The North Sea
And so to 'the token jazz entry' (Polar Bear, 2005; Basquiat Strings, 2007). This is simply the panel’s way of exhibiting their spectacular understanding of a world away from the charts. The viewing public will take the opportunity to make a nice cup of tea, while the hum of weird instruments being plucked and rattled wafts in from the empty lounge.

24/07/08

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