Euro 2008 Betting

Italy 7/1

Can Italy's football giants do a World and European double? Probably not is your answer.

You see, every great man has a weakness. The legendary artist Michelangelo was brilliant at painting ceilings and crafting marble into tremendous sculptures, but ask him to do a picture/sculpture of a lady, and he'd give you Arnold Schwarzenegger's body with two big lumps of clay for breasts - and only marginally less of a penis (a nude Nigella Lawson). His weakness was doing women, both in art and life. And so to his national football team. Thus far they have been good at winning World Cups, but when it comes to Euro Cups, they could do better. Will this be the year they discover how to sculpt/paint breasts? Metaphorically speaking.

Chickendinner predicts: Quarter-Finalists

Headline Trends:
» The French have only once failed to get out of a European Championship group - Euro 1992.

» They haven’t lost to Italy in 90 minutes since 1978, Romania since 1972 and the Netherlands just once since 1981.

Odds: 7/1

Past record:
1960 – Semi-final
1984 - Winner
1992 – Round 1
1996 – Semi-final
2000 – Winner
2004 – Quarter-final

Group C Opponents (record in last five encounters):
Italy W1 D4 L0
Netherlands W2 D2 L1
Romania W4 D1 L0

Recommended Betting:
The French can be expected to go through, but doing so behind Italy seems like a likely option – that’s a tasty 9/2 combination.

If the French are to succeed this year, Henry will surely have to be at the top of his game – the odds of 66/1 on a French victory and Henry top scorer double is a long-shot but perhaps one worth taking.

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Stats:
» Of the last six major tournaments the French have competed in, they have reached at least the semi-final on four occasions, the final on three and just once failed to get out of their group (World Cup 2002).

» The French were excellent at the back in qualifying – conceding just five goals in twelve games, nobody conceded fewer in qualifying (the Dutch and the Czechs also conceded just five).

» It might not be wise to expect plenty of goals in the French games – taking out the games against the whipping boys. Faroe Islands, in qualifying seven of their ten games were under 2.5 goals.

» Greece lost two games in qualifying before going on to win Euro 2004, France too lost two games in qualifying this time around.

» A popular market on football games is the ‘both teams to score’ market – of the last ten competitive games the French have played only one team has scored.

» The last time a team who didn’t win their qualifying group went on to win the tournament was in 1992, when Denmark took the place of Yugoslavia who withdrew. The French finished second in their qualifying group to Italy.

Form:
» The French make hard work of a qualifying group in which they ended up second to the Italians. They were beaten home and away by Scotland and also dropped points against Ukraine.

» Aside from Scotland no side has beaten France in a competitive fixture inside 90 minutes since their exit at Euro 2004.

Motivation:
The French squad will know they have what it takes to get all the way to the final, having done so in Euro 2000 and World Cup 2006.

The embarrassment of losing to the unfancied Greece in the quarter final of the last European Championship is still a memory that needs to be erased. The French public will heave pressure on what is a hugely talented French squad.

Top scorer prospect:
Thierry Henry – Despite scoring just twelve goals this season in a bit-part role this season, he will still be the main man when it comes to the French attack this summer. This is after all the man who could potentially reach a half century of goals for France before the tournament is over.

Aged 30, Henry is running out of opportunities to shine on the international stage but he netted six times in eight qualifying games to suggest he could yet be the reason behind a French success.


Key Player:
Frank Ribery – Ribery has shown himself to be a versatile and dangerously fast winger over the past few years supplying countless assists for Luca Toni and Miroslav Klose this year on route to leading Bayern Munich to a Bundesliga and German Cup double.

Ribery will however hope to make the transition from being a goalscorer and a match winner for his club to being one for his country. Ribery netted eleven times in twenty-eight appearances for Munich this season but has just three goals in twenty-eight games for France.

12/02/08

Euro 2008 Betting, best odds