Why Hamilton won’t win in Brazil but will be crowned champion

Brazilian Grand Prix, 5pm, ITV1, £30 of free bets

The big question in Brazil is what will Lewis Hamilton do if he finds himself behind Felipe Massa in Brazil: sit back and accept being second-best for a day or make a major error chasing victory and throw away the Drivers Championship once again? Here’s why the Brit won’t win at Interlagos but will still win the Championship:

Why Hamilton won’t win the race…

» Hamilton has followed just one of his last seven race wins with victory in the following Grand Prix.

» More worryingly, only one of the last six have been followed by a podium finish.

» There have only ever been three British victories at Interlagos – the last of which came in 2001. In comparison there have been six occasions where a Brazilian has taken the chequered flag.
» McLaren have won in Brazil just once in the last six years. Over that period Ferrari have been victorious on three occasions, each time with a different driver.

» Massa won this race in 2006 and finished 1.493 seconds behind Kimi Raikkonen. He led for much of the race and may have challenged more in the closing stages were he not doing a job for the team.

» Kimi Raikkonen should also play a part in hampering Hamilton. The Finn traditionally finishes strongly and has taken more points in the last two races than in the previous six combined. He has finished in the top two at Interlagos in four of the last five years.

…but should win the Drivers Championship

» Despite underachieving in races that follow victories, Hamilton’s average points haul in his eight post-win races is four points, which would be enough to win the Championship. Hamilton has finished in the four-point paying fifth position three times in his Formula One career – all after victories.

» Massa has only outscored Hamilton by seven points three times in 34 races – last year at the Nurburgring and this year at Bahrain and France. He hasn’t outscored him by that margin since June.

» Hamilton improved this season at all four Grands Prix where he missed out on the podium last year: Europe, Turkey, Belgium and China. He finished on the podium at all four with an average point improvement of 5.75. Considering he took two points in Brazil last year, he only needs a two point improvement to guarantee success.

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Posted: October 31st, 2008 by Michael Lintorn |