It’s hard to see past Serena Williams in the women’s final

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Serena Williams is 1.45 to overcome Dinara Safina (3.15) in the Australian Open final and while the two outsiders won the semi-finals, this is one match where an upset looks very unlikely:

» Safina has faced Serena six times in the past but has only triumphed once.

» Serena has a 75% record in Grand Slam finals having won nine of twelve whereas Safina lost her only final in France last year. Williams has a perfect three out of three strike rate in Australia.

» Excluding Serena, there have only been five winners in the last 22 years who weren’t one of the top two seeds. Safina is seeded third.

» Safina has clashed with Serena four times before on hard courts, losing each time, and on three of those occasions she has lost in straight sets. Serena is 2.2 to win in this manner.

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Posted: January 29th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Carlton Cole is 10/1 to be top English goalscorer this season

West Ham striker’s odds were slashed after he made it five in five

Carlton Cole is now 11.0 on Betfair to finish the season as the top English goalscorer in the Premier League after pulling within one goal of joint-leaders Jermain Defoe [3.25], Gabriel Agbonlahor [7.4], Steven Gerrard [9.8] and Frank Lampard [10.0].

The West Ham forward, who has already doubled his previous record of four goals in a Premier League season, has scored in five consecutive Premier League games and is now being tipped for an England call-up.

The goalscoring run will be put to the test over the next fortnight however as West Ham face Arsenal and Manchester United.

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Posted: January 29th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Liverpool can bounce back after another awful January

Rafael Benitez knows how to finish with a flourish (this is a fact!)

Liverpool have won just three of their last ten games which has led their title odds to drift out to 8/1 with Bet365 and Boylesports. Here are a few reasons why Rafael Benitez’s side aren’t out of it yet:

» Liverpool have failed to win a league game this January, drawing all three that they contested, but that is nothing new. Last season they played four league times in January, drawing three and losing one.

» After last season’s January slump they went on to finish the season in emphatic style. They won eleven, drew three and lost one of their final fifteen, meaning that they were comfortably the best team in the league from February onwards. Over that period they averaged 2.40 points a game to Manchester United’s 2.14.

Posted: January 29th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Serena Williams is 2.22 to overcome Elena Dementieva

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Elena Dementieva [1.81] starts as favourite against Serena Williams tonight having triumphed in their last three meetings. However Serena’s price doesn’t take into account her excellent Grand Slam semi-final record:

» Serena has won twelve of her fourteen career Grand Slam semi-finals and has been victorious in her last six.

» In contrast, Dementieva has a two out of six strike rate. She was eliminated at this stage at the last two Grand Slams and hasn’t reached the final of one since the 2004 US Open.

» Serena wins this tournament once every two years and after victories in 2003, 2005 and 2007, it is her turn again this year. Every time she has reached the final four at Melbourne Park she has been crowned champion.

» They have only met once previously at a Grand Slam, with Serena winning in straight sets at Wimbledon 2003.

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Posted: January 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Statistics on tonight’s other five Premier League matches

Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal prepare for a game of catch-up

While Sky’s focus is on West Ham and Hull’s battle for mid-table position, there is plenty of excitement to be had elsewhere. Liverpool and Chelsea are in action, Arsenal travel to Everton and Sam Allardyce hosts old club Bolton. Here are all the key statistics you need to know for betting on those games:

Blackburn v Bolton
Sam Allardyce will look to continue his six match unbeaten run as Blackburn manager with victory over former club Bolton. Last season he triumphed over the Trotters while at Newcastle and he beat the Magpies earlier this month with Blackburn. Rovers are unbeaten in four against Bolton, winning three. Five of the last seven meetings between the two at Ewood Park have featured under 2.5 goals but all three of their home games since Allardyce arrived have featured three or more goals.

Chelsea v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough are on a run of ten league games without a win. The last time they went that long without tasting victory they triumphed over previously unbeaten Arsenal in their next match. However, Middlesbrough haven’t scored in any of their last six visits to Stamford Bridge and were beaten 5-0 at home by them earlier this season.

Everton v Arsenal

Posted: January 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Hull need to get back on track with another win in London

West Ham/Hull, 8pm, Sky Sports 2, Free Bets, Best Odds

West Ham have been in great form since Christmas while Hull have been in freefall. That should mean that the 4/5 odds on the home win is good value but the East London club have never been too well acquainted with the term “easy three points” in the past:

FORM GUIDE
West Ham are on their first four league match unbeaten run in fourteen months while Hull are bottom of the form league having lost their last five, the first time they have gone on such a run since 1998, when they were in League Two. Twenty years have passed since the Tigers last lost six league games in succession however.

WEST HAM VERSUS PROMOTED SIDES
Gianfranco Zola’s side have lost two of their three games against promoted sides this season although both of those came away from home. Last season West Ham won two and drew one of their three home games against newcomers but the year before they lost at home by Reading and Watford.

HULL VERSUS LONDONERS

Posted: January 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment