Why Manchester United can’t lose focus in the closing stages

Man Utd/Inter, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2, Free Bets, Best Odds

Rather than concentrating on their gameplan to eliminate Manchester United, Inter Milan have been busy calculating what percentage chance they stand. Jose Mourinho says 50% while Mario Balotelli goes with 45% but both are wrong as the actual figure is 33%. Here we present the case for both teams, leaving you to assess whether the 8/15 on the holders breaking the curse is better value than the 7/4 Ladbrokes are offering on Inter progressing, while providing you with useful tips on other markets:

In the red corner…

» Manchester United have won eight and lost just one of their last ten home games against Italian opposition, triumphing in their last four.

» The Red Devils are unbeaten at home in over a year in all competitions and have gone more than four years without a Champions League loss at Old Trafford, a run stretching nineteen games.

» If the tie goes the distance as Jose Mourinho expects, the holders should have the edge having won four shootouts over the last two years. The first came against Mourinho’s Chelsea in last season’s Community Shield.

» Inter have eliminated in this round in each of the last two seasons.

In the blue (and black) corner…

» The away goal factor - Inter have scored in their last eleven Serie A and Champions League away games.

» Manchester United have kept just one home clean sheet in five attempts against Jose Mourinho. His Porto side drew 1-1 at Old Trafford five seasons ago to reach the last eight and a repeat would see Inter qualify.

» Sir Alex Ferguson has won just one of his thirteen meetings with Mourinho and has lost two of his last four home games against the Inter boss, despite his side scoring on both occasions.

» The holders have gone out at this stage in each of the last four years.

Other betting information

» Mourinho sides have scored a goal in the last ten minutes on three of his previous five trips to Old Trafford. They have scored last on four occasions yet can still be backed to grab the final goal at 15/8 with Bet365.

» The last five Mourinho/Ferguson clashes have had under 2.5 goals. All four of last night’s second round games had at least three however.

» Swerving the Inter goalscorer markets. All six of their away Champions League goals have been scored by different players - Mancini, Adriano, Balotelli, Materazzi, Cruz and Ibrahimovic.

» Betfair offer 2.54 on the hosts leading at half-time but they have only done so in one of their last five games.

Posted: March 11th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn |