Five reasons why Arsenal are unlikely to win at El Madrigal

Villarreal/Arsenal, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Arsenal are enjoying their best form in over a year and are capable of delivering on the road in Europe - as results away to Inter and AC Milan have shown. But while they are capable of excellence, more often than not they disappoint, which is why we find it hard to justify backing the visitors at the general price of 8/5:

1. Arsenal have won just three of their last fourteen Champions League away games (excluding qualifiers), which is a win percentage of just 21%.

2. Today is the four-year anniversary of Villarreal’s last European home defeat. Since then they have played fifteen, winning eight and drawing seven.

3. The Yellow Submarine haven’t lost at home in 2009 and have only lost two of their last 34 games at El Madrigal. Those losses came against league leaders Barcelona and Real Valladolid, who have won seven games against the top seven this season.

4. The last meeting between the two sides in Spain ended goalless with Diego Forlan missing a great chance for the hosts and Jens Lehmann saving Juan Roman Riquelme’s penalty right at the end.

5. Just thirteen of the last hundred Champions League quarter-final matches (13%) have been won by the visitors.

Any other business

» Fourteen of Arsenal’s last fifteen two-legged Champions League knockout matches have contained under 2.5 goals, including each of their previous two against Villarreal. Unfortunately, the bookmakers are wise to this and the best price offered is 4/7 with 888sport.

» Emmanuel Adebayor has scored in four of his last five Champions League away games and he is 12/5 with Paddy Power to score at any time.

Posted: April 7th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn |