Spain are favourites to win the Confederations Cup

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Arguably the least prestigious tournament in international football gets going in South Africa this weekend and we still don’t really understand what’s at stake. All the continental champions and the World Cup holders are there but they aren’t fighting to be crowned the best team in the world. In fact, the only country who really stand to benefit are South Africa, who didn’t have to earn their place in the Con Cup and will gain experience of hosting an international tournament ahead of one that actually matters next summer.

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» The Con Cup participants are supposed to be eight of the best teams in the world but the bookmakers clearly don’t see it that way. There is a huge gap between the challengers and the also-rans in the winner’s market betting, with Spain, Brazil and Italy all 7/2 or less while the other five teams - South Africa, Egypt, USA, Iraq and New Zealand - are 20/1 or more.

» The chances of South Africa, Egypt, Iraq and New Zealand are dealt a further blow by the fact that no team from Africa, Asia or Oceania have ever won the tournament. USA won’t be too confident either because the only CONCACAF winners have been Mexico, when they hosted it a decade ago.

» South Africa stand an outside chance though, which is why they are fourth favourites, because hosts normally perform well. Since the tournament left Saudi Arabia, the host nation have finished in the top three of all four tournaments, winning twice and finishing second once.

» Since the introduction of a group stage in 1995, the Group A winners have triumphed in five out of the six tournaments. As Spain are joined by South Africa, Iraq and New Zealand in this year’s Group A, that hands them a significant advantage.

» Reigning champions Brazil failed to retain when they were last holders in 1999, losing out to Mexico in the final. France (2001, 2003) are the only team to have ever retained before not even receiving a place in 2005.

» Winning the Con Cup doesn’t bode well for your World Cup chances, with no champion ever going on to win it. 1992 winners Argentina lost in the second round at USA 1994, 1997 winners Brazil lost the final at France 1998, 2001 winners France went out at the group stage at Japan/South Korea 2002 and 2005 champs Brazil only made the quarter-finals at the last World Cup.

Posted: June 12th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn |