Eight reasons not to back Sea The Stars in the Irish Derby

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Sea The Stars proved us wrong by beating Fame and Glory at Epsom earlier this month but we’re certain that trainer Aidan O’Brien will get revenge at the Curragh on Sunday. Here’s why:

1. Sea The Stars is attempting to complete a 2,000 Guineas, English and Irish Derby treble. The last time such a feat was managed was by Nijinsky way back in 1970.

2. Aidan O’Brien has trained six Irish Derby winners, including each of the last three and he has had 16 placed in the last decade. Second favourite Fame and Glory and Masterofthehorse are among his ten possible entries this year.

3. Four of the last six winners, including each of the last three, were all beaten in the Epsom Derby. Of this year’s entries Fame and Glory, Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword and Gan Amhras ran. Each of the last six Irish Derby winners lost their previous outing.

4. The last six Epsom Derby winners have been beaten on their next outing.

5. Sea The Stars has won just two of its three races in Ireland, whereas Fame and Glory is unbeaten in three. Of the last seven Irish Derby winners, just one had a win rate of less than 75% in Ireland prior to the race.

6. If you staked a pound on every horse Sea The Stars’ jockey Mick Kinane has mounted at the Curragh since 27 January 2000, you would have made a £217.22 loss.

7. In 2007 and 2008, Kinane took part in 131 Irish flat races during June and July but he only won six of them.

8. It might not even run. Trainer John Oxx says he will withdraw his star if the ground is too damp.

Posted: June 25th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn |