Fairly dull first legs have left both Europa League semi-finals finely poised, so there is an opportunity to make money just by picking the finalists. Fulham and Atletico Madrid are the two favourites to go through after favourable first-leg results, yet can be backed at 9/4 with Bet365 to meet in Germany.

Fulham have won seven of their eight European home games this season, whereas Hamburg have escaped without a beating in only two of their last eight away days, and those were against relegation-bound Bochum and freefalling Standard Liege.

As for Atletico Madrid, they will score tonight. At least, that’s the conclusion that anyone checking out their record on the road would draw, given that they have struck twice in each of their three away Europa League ties. And will Liverpool really strike three times with Fernando Torres, Dirk Kuyt and David N’Gog all reportedly unavailable? We’re unconvinced…

You might not be inclined to agree, after Manchester United flopped in Munich last night to end our Millwall, Steve Bruce and Carlos Tevez inspired winning streak, but we’re still confident that there’s money to be made backing British, and are doing so again in the Champions League.

Arsenal might not be as easy on the eye as the trio we named above (or have we got that the wrong way round?) but their home record this season is the stuff stat anoraks like ourselves dream about: they’ve played 23, won 20 of them and scored 63 goals – yes, nearly three goals a game.

Barcelona, brilliant though they are, lost at Old Trafford two seasons ago, were very fortuitous not to be beaten at Stamford Bridge last season and have won just one of their last seven Champions League away matches, not exactly the form you’d expect from reigning champions.

Even the most committed “best league in the world” preachers of the Premier League church are reluctant to get behind Arsenal tonight, which is why the Gunners are available at the unusually high price of 11/5 on Bet365. However, we reckon it’s worth converting for the evening.

If you stick your neck on the line all time, there are going to be occasions where you’re left looking like a right idiot. For us, the egg-on-face moment was backing AC Milan to knock out Manchester United. Still, it was only 7-2 on aggregate so we weren’t too far wrong…

Our lesson has been learned though and we are hopping back, tail between legs, in support of the three-time European champions tonight in Germany, where they look great value at 8/5 with Betfair to beat Bayern Munich.

Not only does the form point firmly in the Red Devils’ favour – they’ve won their last seven, Bayern just two of their last six, and one of those successes required extra time – but star man Arjen Robben is set to miss out, while Manchester United have won their last six Champions League away games.

Seven of Carlos Tevez’s 16 Premier League goals this season have been scored in Monday night games, which is a pretty emphatic stat considering he’s only played in four such matches.

The Argentine scored a hat-trick against Blackburn at Eastlands and scored twice at home to former club West Ham and away to Wolves, so bet on him boosting Manchester City’s hopes of finishing fourth against another struggling side, Wigan, tonight.

He grabbed the opener in the three fixtures mentioned above so, even at the fairly short price of 4.7 (just over 7/2) to score the first goal on Betfair, he is well worth backing.

At the start of March, all the talk was about Sunderland’s 14-match winless run but a few good results later, that statistic has been replaced by one about them losing just once in eight games – and that was away to Arsenal.

Similarly, praise for Aston Villa’s status as the only Premier League team unbeaten in 2010 has diminished recently, with greater emphasis placed on the fact they’ve drawn six of their nine, winning just three.

So Sunderland have the momentum heading into this game, while Gabriel Agbonlahor, Richard Dunne and James Milner are all injury doubts for Villa. Steve Bruce has been a thorn in their side before and will be eager to add to the 21 points he deprived them of while in charge of Birmingham and Wigan.

There are two great value options for you to choose from on Betfair – you can either lay the hosts at 1.68 or, if you’re happy to dismiss the prospect of a Black Cats’ victory, take the 4.0 offered on the draw.

Spurred on by the profit made backing Millwall to win at Leeds yesterday, we’re staying loyal to the Football League and chasing long odds tonight – a £10 double on Doncaster beating Newcastle and Darlington getting the better of Aldershot provides a profit of £127 on Betfair. Not too shabby!

Why are we siding with the two outsiders? It’s not just because we think the phrase “Donny-Darlo double” has a nice ring to it, honest.

Doncaster are in fantastic form - unbeaten in six – and have already scalped Nottingham Forest and Cardiff at the Keepmoat Stadium, while Newcastle are unconvincing away and team spirit isn’t exactly likely to be at an all-time high after this morning’s tabloid revelations.

Darlington is admittedly more of a hunch, given their poor form, but they’ll be looking for a reaction after Steve Staunton’s exit and they face opponents who have lost six of their nine away games against teams below them.

The reason Leeds have been forced to endure a third season in League One was Millwall’s unwillingness to lie down for them in last season’s play-offs, and they could yet suffer a fourth year in the wilderness because of the Lions.

Victory for Kenny Jackett’s men will take them to within three points of the freefalling Whites, who have a tricky run-in. Leeds are rarely beaten at Elland Road, or at least they were. They’ve lost three games there already in 2010, whereas Millwall have lost just once in total in that time.

The Londoners are unbeaten in three meetings with Leeds and head into this clash in blistering form, having taken 28 points from the last 33 available. Norwich and Charlton were both conquered in that streak – unsurprisingly, Millwall are usually at their best in the big games when the spotlight is on them and they’re considered outsiders. Back them tonight at 4.2 on Betfair.

Tonight’s tip is to stick money on both a Swedish superstar doing the business in the Champions League, and a Geordie Messiah continuing his fine form in the Championship this evening.

Bet365 are offering double odds of 17.75/1 on both Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Andy Carroll scoring the opening goal in their respective games tonight, a bet that can be placed each-way, with a third of the odds if either fails to grab the opener but both get on the scoresheet.

By our calculations, that means that by sticking a fiver each-way on the bet – a tenner outlay in total – you will make a profit of £106.11 if both break the deadlock, and £12.36 if they score at any time.

Why Ibra and Carroll? Well, Ibrahimovic fired his first ever Champions League knockout round goal in the first leg and, against a Stuttgart defence that are allergic to keeping clean sheets, has a great chance of getting more. As for Carroll, he has struck six times in his last eight games and will be confident of further enhancing that statistic against struggling Scunthorpe.

The Premier League’s a lot poorer this afternoon following the dismissal of Phil Brown as Hull manager, but there’s no room for sentiment in betting, so we’ve already moved on to looking at who’ll be next through the door.

The joint-favourites at 5/2 with Paddy Power to succeed the Humber Bridge Hero are Gary Megson and Alan Curbishley, who both have recent experience of coming into a club in the bottom three of the Premier League and keeping them up.

Our hunch is that Curbs will hold out in hope of an approach from a mid-table club, whereas Megson would surely jump at any Premier League job offer after the criticism he received before parting ways with Bolton to clear the path for the man who calls himself Moses.

Uninspiring appointment, you cry? Well, Adam Pearson’s last managerial alteration as a Premier League chairman saw him sack Billy Davies, the man who got Derby promoted against all odds, and replace him with Paul Jewell, the consequence being that they didn’t win another match all season.

Who do you fancy to succeed Phil Brown at the KC? Tell us your tips below…

Since Stoke’s promotion, many methods have been employed to try to nullify the threat posed by Rory Delap’s bullets into the box.

Dean Windass tried distracting him with some unusual warm-up routines, Lucas Neill attempted to engage in some towel-related mind games and, just the other day, Burnley tried pushing the advertising hoardings closer to the pitch, but still goal after Stoke goal stems from a Delap throw.

Aston Villa won’t need any fancy techniques to shield themselves from an onslaught – they’ve got Richard Dunne, while the presence of James Collins and Carlos Cuellar will come in pretty handy.

Most importantly of all though, they have the league’s best defensive record, with just 21 goals conceded in 26 games, including none when Stoke visited Villa Park in December.

The Potters have been silenced just twice at home this season – by Manchester United and Birmingham – but back Villa to become the third to keep a clean sheet there at 2.9 (19/10) on Betfair.

Triple B Accie: Another option for your Saturday afternoon punt is a treble on Birmingham, Bolton and Burnley seeing off Everton, Wigan and Wolves, paying £74.15 for a fiver stake with Betfair.