Man City are 3/1 to qualify but the signs aren’t too promising

Manchester City/Hamburg, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Paddy Power and Bet365 are offering 3/1 on Manchester City overcoming their 3-1 deficit and knocking out Hamburg tonight but the statistics suggest that they will have to perform out of their skins to do so:

» Hamburg have only won five of their 14 away league games and have drawn one and lost four of their five visits to fellow Bundesliga top six sides.

» Despite this, their European record is amazing. The German side have won all five of their UEFA Cup away games, scoring 12 and conceding just three. They have scored at least two in every game and kept three clean sheets.

Posted: April 16th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Man United host a Porto side who hate travelling to the UK

Manchester United/Porto, 7.45pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Manchester United have been granted the best draw they could have asked for in their quest to retain the Champions League but recent defensive frailties threaten to end their run of seven straight clean sheets in two-legged European ties. However, Porto’s dreadful record in the UK means that an upset (9/1 with Ladbrokes) remains incredibly unlikely:

HOME ADVANTAGE
Manchester United’s domestic invincibility may have worn off but there are some pretty significant stats which make them the team to fear in Europe. The holders haven’t lost a Champions League home game since February 2005 and are unbeaten in 21 games in total in the competition. However, while they won all six of their European games at Old Trafford last season, they haven’t been quite as convincing this season. They beat Celtic (3-0) and Inter (2-0) but they failed to find a way past potential quarter-final opponents Villarreal (0-0) or the fifth-best team in Denmark, Aalborg (2-2).

Posted: April 7th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Manchester City’s away form isn’t as big an issue in Europe

Aalborg/Man City, 8pm, Five, Free Bets, Best Odds

Manchester City have been waiting seven months for a domestic away win but they don’t have struggle anywhere near as much in Europe. Here are five key stats to bear in mind when betting on their trip to Aalborg tonight:

» Mark Hughes’ side have gone fourteen domestic matches on the road without keeping a clean sheet but have shut the opposition out in three of their six European away games.

» The Citizens have been beaten just once in their six UEFA Cup away games this season - winning four and drawing one. The loss came 3-1 away to Racing when City’s qualification from the group stage was already assured.

Posted: March 19th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Manchester City have an opportunity to out-do United

Manchester City/Aalborg, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Manchester United may be on the verge of winning every trophy going and breaking records on the way but their rivals have a chance to achieve something that Sir Alex Ferguson couldn’t this season: a home win over Aalborg. The Red Devils were held 2-2 by the Danes in December and City will be looking to out-do them tonight:

Strong home team versus decent away side

» Manchester City have won five consecutive home games, conceding just two goals in the process.

» The Citizens have won three and drawn one of their four UEFA Cup games at Eastlands this season (excluding qualifiers). However the opposition scored and lost by just one goal in all three victories (2-1, 3-2, 2-1).

» Aalborg are unbeaten in seven away games and have won four of their last five on the road. They average just 1.00 points per league home game this season compared to 1.89 away.

Posted: March 12th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Arsenal and Manchester United’s most likely scorers

chickendinner’s Champions League goalscorer betting guide

Here’s chickendinner’s look at some of the frontrunners to score the goals that could send Arsenal and Manchester United through as group winners tonight:

Arsenal:

Robin van Persie (first goalscorer 7/1, anytime goalscorer 9/4, last goalscorer 7/1) scored twice in Arsenal’s last away game against Chelsea and also grabbed a brace in Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Porto earlier this season. The Dutchman has scored nine times this season but may be rested.

William Gallas (first goalscorer 28/1, anytime goalscorer 11/1, last goalscorer 28/1) has scored three Champions League goals already this season, a total topped only by Emmanuel Adebayor (four).

Posted: December 10th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment

Five reasons why Manchester United will win big tonight

Man Utd/Aalborg, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2, Best Odds, Free Bets

The last sixteen in this year’s competition have already been confirmed without any real surprises so all Manchester United have left to play for is the chance to top their group. This is supposed to guarantee an easier knockout stage draw but with Inter Milan finishing second in their group and Bayern Munich and Real Madrid likely to follow tonight, any advantage is minimal. United are generally 1/5 to win tonight but the best value in on them winning by four or more goals, available at 4/1 with Boylesports, or to score five at 11/2 with Sky Bet. Here’s why:

1. Aalborg have let in 12 goals in the Champions League group stages this season – the second highest in the competition after five games - and conceded six away to Villarreal.

2. With their UEFA Cup spot guaranteed, Aalborg have nothing left to play for. They failed to score on their last visit to Britain to face Celtic and alarmingly have a negative goal difference even in their domestic league, which they won last season.

Posted: December 10th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment