Everything you need to know to bet on the Ascot Gold Cup

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For many, the Gold Cup is the highlight of Royal Ascot and the big story this year is whether eight-year-old Yeats will be able to defy the age trends and become the first ever four-time winner of the race. Here are some stats to help you decide whether or not to back the favourite to make history:

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Pointers

» The last ten Gold Cup winners were all drawn in even-numbered stalls, with three of the last five winners drawing stall four. Veracity will be occupying that stall this year.

» 13 of the last 16 winners had won over two miles or more prior to the race. Of this year’s ten horses, only Geordieland, Veracity, Yeats and Patkai have been victorious over that distance.

» The last nine winners all triumphed in a Group 1 or 2 race prior to their Ascot success – Sagara never has.

» Geordieland and Hindu Kush are the only horses in the field to have won their last race – five of the last six champions won their final outing before the Gold Cup.

Age and weight trends

Posted: June 17th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Royal Ascot: Eight stats about the festival’s opening race

Stoute and bin Suroor’s Queen Anne Stakes duopoly may resume

One of the biggest festivals of the flat racing season gets underway tomorrow with the Queen Anne Stakes, which is finally poised with no overwhelming favourite and three credible contenders. Here are some stats to help you bet on Tuesday’s 2.30pm:

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» 12 of the last 13 winners have been trained by Saeed bin Suroor (seven), Sir Michael Stoute (three) or Aidan O’Brien (two). O’Brien doesn’t have a horse in the race this year, while bin Suroor has favourite Gladiatorus and Alexandros and Stoute has Main Aim.

» Eight-year-olds Cesare and Mac Love are cursed by the fact no horse aged six or older has triumphed since Ardoon in 1976.

» The last two winners have been five-year-olds, with Arabian Gleam the only one in this year’s race, while everyone else except Cesare and Mac Love are four. Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17.

Posted: June 15th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Grand National: Writing off some of this year’s no-hopers

chickendinner is the place to go for stats on Aintree’s big race

Before we break your heart by telling you that the 100/1 horse whose name you like the sound of doesn’t stand a chance, here’s an encouraging stat to kick off with. In seven of the last nine Grand Nationals, at least one horse with a starting price of 33/1 or better has been placed. But for every rough diamond that has lined up at Aintree there have been dozens of donkeys. Here are a few methods to help you separate the reasonably good long shots from the disturbingly bad:

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WRITING HORSES OFF

» Not since Gunner Welburn six years ago has a placed horse in the most recent Welsh National finished in the top four at the Grand National. Cornish Sett looks like being the latest horse to suffer at the hands of that lean streak.

» Just three eight-year-olds have won this race in the last 35 years – Corbiere (1983), Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002). Of the long shots, this trend is bad news for Battlecry, Nine De Sivola, Flintoff and Nozic.

» A mare hasn’t won the Grand National since Nickel Coin triumphed in 1951. Musica Bella and Pomme Tiepy are unlikely to buck that trend.

Posted: March 30th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 2 Comments