Federer goes into the final as favourite against Nadal

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After five sets and over five hours on court, Rafael Nadal overcame compatriot Fernando Verdasco to reach his first Australian Open final. However, it’s his nemesis Roger Federer who starts as favourite:

Roger Federer [1.68]

» On all three occasions that Federer has reached the Australian Open final he has triumphed.

» Andre Agassi is the only man since 1962 to have won four times at Melbourne Park. Federer is a three-time champion.

Rafael Nadal [2.46]

» Nadal boasts a 12-6 record over the world number two and won each of their four clashes last year. They haven’t met since the Wimbledon final.

» However, the Spaniard has got one stage further every year in Australia, reaching the third round on his first visit. Since then he has reached the fourth, the quarters and then the semis. That indicates that this year he will be the runner-up.

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Posted: January 30th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment

It’s hard to see past Serena Williams in the women’s final

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Serena Williams is 1.45 to overcome Dinara Safina (3.15) in the Australian Open final and while the two outsiders won the semi-finals, this is one match where an upset looks very unlikely:

» Safina has faced Serena six times in the past but has only triumphed once.

» Serena has a 75% record in Grand Slam finals having won nine of twelve whereas Safina lost her only final in France last year. Williams has a perfect three out of three strike rate in Australia.

» Excluding Serena, there have only been five winners in the last 22 years who weren’t one of the top two seeds. Safina is seeded third.

» Safina has clashed with Serena four times before on hard courts, losing each time, and on three of those occasions she has lost in straight sets. Serena is 2.2 to win in this manner.

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Posted: January 29th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Serena Williams is 2.22 to overcome Elena Dementieva

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Elena Dementieva [1.81] starts as favourite against Serena Williams tonight having triumphed in their last three meetings. However Serena’s price doesn’t take into account her excellent Grand Slam semi-final record:

» Serena has won twelve of her fourteen career Grand Slam semi-finals and has been victorious in her last six.

» In contrast, Dementieva has a two out of six strike rate. She was eliminated at this stage at the last two Grand Slams and hasn’t reached the final of one since the 2004 US Open.

» Serena wins this tournament once every two years and after victories in 2003, 2005 and 2007, it is her turn again this year. Every time she has reached the final four at Melbourne Park she has been crowned champion.

» They have only met once previously at a Grand Slam, with Serena winning in straight sets at Wimbledon 2003.

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Posted: January 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

If you think Nadal will win the Australian Open, bet now!

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Roger Federer’s price dropped from 3.45 to 2.16 after a convincing victory over Juan Martin del Potro so expect to see former favourite Rafael Nadal’s price of 2.74 plummet if he beats Gilles Simon tomorrow morning:

» Nadal is the only man yet to drop a set in this year’s tournament. In the last two years, the person who has gone the furthest without dropping a set (Federer in 2007, Djokovic in 2008) has been victorious.

» The world number one has improved every year at Melbourne Park. In 2004 he got to round three and in 2005 he got to round four. Then the Spaniard missed out through injury in 2006 before reaching the quarter-finals in 2007 and the semis last year.

» If it comes down to him and Federer, Nadal will be confident. He won all four meetings with the world number two last year and has a 10-4 record over him in finals.

Posted: January 27th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Nadal takes over as favourite after easing past Gonzalez

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Andy Murray may be gone but the Australian Open men’s betting is still really tight ahead of the quarter-finals. Rafael Nadal has leapfrogged Roger Federer after crushing 2007 finalist Fernando Gonzalez but his toughest tests are yet to come:

Nadal [2.48] has yet to reach the final of a hard court Grand Slam. The world number one has yet to drop a set but could be tested properly in his quarter-final with Gilles Simon, who beat the Spaniard in Madrid three months ago.

Federer [3.45] needed five sets to overcome Tomas Berdych in the fourth round but three years ago he did the same against Tommy Haas before winning tournament. There has however only been one four-time champion since 1962 and that was Andre Agassi.

Novak Djokovic [8.6] is fairly distant considering he is the reigning champion although not since Jim Courier in 1993 has a first-time winner retained his crown.

Six of the last seven losing finalists have been eliminated prior to the quarter-finals the following year but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga [10.5] is eager to show that last year wasn’t a fluke. The last runner-up to make the final eight the following year was Marat Safin in 2005 and he went on to win it.

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Posted: January 26th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Andy Murray 4.6 to beat Jurgen Melzer in four sets

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Andy Murray has barely broken sweat so far but that will change against Jurgen Melzer. chickendinner fancy the Austrian to take a set but if you disagree, Betfair generously offer 1.52 on Murray winning in straight sets:

» Murray won all three of his meetings against Melzer last year but has yet to conquer him in straight sets.

» Even when the Brit enjoyed his best ever Grand Slam at last year’s US Open, he had to work hard to overcome Melzer in the third round. The Austrian went two sets up before Murray came back to win.

» Murray has only once got through the first three rounds of a Grand Slam without dropping a set.

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Posted: January 23rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment