Stats on this weekend’s four major Premier League games

Click here for the latest odds on the relegation battle

The deck seems to be stacked against Newcastle as they enter the final day in the relegation zone with Hull facing Manchester United Reserves but we still find it difficult to imagine them playing in the Championship. Here are three stats for each of Sunday’s four biggest games:

Aston Villa v Newcastle
The hosts have won just one of their last 15 games in all competitions.
Villa have only triumphed in three of their last 13 home league matches.
However, Newcastle have lost on three of their last four visits to Villa Park.

Hull v Manchester United
Manchester United have won their final match in five of the last six seasons.
The Tigers shipped three goals at home to Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.

Posted: May 22nd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why Newcastle and Boro may get the result that both dread

Newcastle/Middlesbrough, 8pm, Setanta S1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Unless West Brom do the unthinkable, there will be no Great Escape this season. If either Newcastle or Middlesbrough survive it won’t be because of a remarkable turnaround or inspirational management, it will be thanks to Hull’s ineptitude and a scrappy win or two. The stats suggest that neither Alan Shearer or Gareth Southgate will get the three points they desperately need tonight though, with Hull looking like the most likely winners:

Boylesports are offering 13/5 on the draw. Click here to claim a free £20 matched bet when opening an account with them.

1. The last four meetings between Newcastle and Middlesbrough at St James’ Park have finished level.

2. In total, seven of the last nine clashes between the two sides have been drawn, including each of the last four.

3. Newcastle have drawn 13 league games this season, more than any other club in the division.

Posted: May 11th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Arsene Wenger hunts for first win over Gareth Southgate

Arsenal/Boro, Sunday 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Arsenal are unbeaten in 19 league games while Middlesbrough have lost their last nine on the road so at first glance this looks like a home banker where the hosts’ 4/9 odds are fully justified. However, Gareth Southgate appears to know exactly how to set his team up when facing the Gunners:

» Southgate has faced Arsenal five times as a manager but has never been defeated - winning once and drawing four.

» The Gunners’ unbeaten run won’t intimidate Boro, who ended Arsenal’s 15 game unbeaten start to last season with a 2-1 win at the Riverside.

Posted: April 24th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Where Manchester United are most likely to drop six points

chickendinner provide the straws for Liverpool fans to clutch

Paddy Power think the title race is over and offer just 1/14 on Manchester United winning for the third straight season. To stop them, Liverpool must win all their remaining games and hope that the Red Devils drop six points. It’s all very unlikely but rather than accepting a premature end to an exciting campaign, we decided to look at where the holders are most likely to slip up:

Tottenham (h)
Spurs are unbeaten in six league meetings with the Big Four sides and have lost just one away game against a top-half side. Harry Redknapp’s side have lost one of their last nine and he has won there with West Ham and Portsmouth. Spurs haven’t won an away league match against a Big Four side since August 1993 - when they beat Liverpool 2-1 at Anfield.
Verdict: United could drop two points here but three is unlikely.

Middlesbrough (a)

Posted: April 23rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment

Newcastle are 16/1 not to win another match this season

Alan Shearer and Iain Dowie must negotiate a difficult run-in

Photo Credit: Anna Gowthorpe, PA Wire

Earlier today we revealed that Newcastle managers usually enjoy a successful start, which is why Sky Bet are offering a hefty 16/1 on Alan Shearer not winning another league match this season. While it’s very unlikely, here are eight statistical reasons why this is a possibility:

Chelsea (h)
Newcastle haven’t scored in their last three home matches against the Blues and have lost to them at least once in each of the last eleven seasons.

Stoke (a)
The Potters haven’t lost a home game to a side outside the top six.

Tottenham (a)
Spurs have lost just one of their 17 home games under Harry Redknapp.

Posted: April 5th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Boro’s reputation as Big Four conquerors is on the decline

Middlesboro/Arsenal, 12.45pm Sat, Sky S1, Best Odds, Free Bets

Middlesbrough have been the thorn in Arsenal’s side in recent years but there are a few signs that suggestion that Arsene Wenger will finally get the better of Gareth Southgate in this weekend’s Saturday lunchtime game, which they are 4/5 to win with Bet365 and Boylesports:

The Big Four conquerors

» Of the thirteen non Big Four clubs who were constant members of the Premier League in 2006-07 and 2007-08, only West Ham (18) took more points against the Big Four than Middlesbrough, who were tied with Portsmouth on thirteen.

» Boro have been the most consistent at taking points off the big clubs. Whereas West Ham took 12 in 06-07 but dropped to 6 in 07-08 and Pompey went from 9 to 4, Gareth Southgate’s side took seven points off the Big Four in his first season then six in his second.

» Arsenal have been the most regular victims of Middlesbrough’s upsets. The Gunners haven’t beaten Boro in any of the four games since Gareth Southgate took charge.

Posted: December 12th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment