Why Newcastle and Boro may get the result that both dread

Newcastle/Middlesbrough, 8pm, Setanta S1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Unless West Brom do the unthinkable, there will be no Great Escape this season. If either Newcastle or Middlesbrough survive it won’t be because of a remarkable turnaround or inspirational management, it will be thanks to Hull’s ineptitude and a scrappy win or two. The stats suggest that neither Alan Shearer or Gareth Southgate will get the three points they desperately need tonight though, with Hull looking like the most likely winners:

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1. The last four meetings between Newcastle and Middlesbrough at St James’ Park have finished level.

2. In total, seven of the last nine clashes between the two sides have been drawn, including each of the last four.

3. Newcastle have drawn 13 league games this season, more than any other club in the division.

Posted: May 11th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Boro could help Liverpool by taking points off Man United

Boro/Man Utd, Sat 12.45pm, Sky Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

It’s probably fair to say that any team who loses 4-1 to Bolton and 3-0 to West Brom deserve to be relegated (no offence Sunderland, who have also trod that path of humiliation). However, Middlesbrough are a Jekyll and Hyde team - hideously ugly away from home but capable of producing the goods at the smog-surrounded Riverside Stadium. With Sir Alex Ferguson talking about making eight changes to his side, here are five reasons why Middlesbrough can take points off Manchester United:

1. Manchester United have won on just three of their last eight visits to the Riverside.

2. The Red Devils have only completed three Premier League doubles over Boro in 13 attempts and have failed to do so in any of the last seven seasons.

Posted: May 1st, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Man United’s overrated defence, John Terry’s unfortunate choice of words

Five stats about this weekend’s football

1. Four Manchester United players made the back five in the PFA team of the season despite the fact Chelsea have conceded an average of 0.59 goals a game compared to Manchester United’s 0.70 and have even kept more clean sheets - 21 to the Red Devils’ 20.

2. Middlesbrough have now lost ten consecutive Premier League away games although Arsenal’s 2-0 win yesterday marked the first time in six attempts that Arsene Wenger had got the better of Gareth Southgate.

3. Spurs have the best home defence in the Premier League having conceded just nine goals in 17 games. After their 5-2 loss to Manchester United though they have the joint-third worst defensive record on the road, shipping 32 goals in 17 games - only one less than West Brom.

Posted: April 27th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Arsene Wenger hunts for first win over Gareth Southgate

Arsenal/Boro, Sunday 1.30pm, Sky Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Arsenal are unbeaten in 19 league games while Middlesbrough have lost their last nine on the road so at first glance this looks like a home banker where the hosts’ 4/9 odds are fully justified. However, Gareth Southgate appears to know exactly how to set his team up when facing the Gunners:

» Southgate has faced Arsenal five times as a manager but has never been defeated - winning once and drawing four.

» The Gunners’ unbeaten run won’t intimidate Boro, who ended Arsenal’s 15 game unbeaten start to last season with a 2-1 win at the Riverside.

Posted: April 24th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Where Manchester United are most likely to drop six points

chickendinner provide the straws for Liverpool fans to clutch

Paddy Power think the title race is over and offer just 1/14 on Manchester United winning for the third straight season. To stop them, Liverpool must win all their remaining games and hope that the Red Devils drop six points. It’s all very unlikely but rather than accepting a premature end to an exciting campaign, we decided to look at where the holders are most likely to slip up:

Tottenham (h)
Spurs are unbeaten in six league meetings with the Big Four sides and have lost just one away game against a top-half side. Harry Redknapp’s side have lost one of their last nine and he has won there with West Ham and Portsmouth. Spurs haven’t won an away league match against a Big Four side since August 1993 - when they beat Liverpool 2-1 at Anfield.
Verdict: United could drop two points here but three is unlikely.

Middlesbrough (a)

Posted: April 23rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment

The Sack Race has ended with Gibson backing Southgate

A round-up of all the long-standing football markets

There’s not much football taking place this week so chickendinner decided to take a look at how some of the season-long betting markets are shaping up as the season reaches its climax:

Next Manager to Go
It looks like there will be no more sackings this season after Middlesbrough chairman Steve Gibson pledged his support to Gareth Southgate. Sky Bet now offer 2/5 on nobody else losing their job while Southgate is 4/1 and Tony Mowbray 6/1.

Top Goalscorer
Cristiano Ronaldo and Steven Gerrard trail Nicolas Anelka by two goals but news of the Frenchman’s toe injury has seen them both over him in Paddy Power’s market. Ronaldo is 13/8, Gerrard 15/8 and Anelka 9/4.

To Avoid Relegation
In 2004-05 it was West Brom, in 2005-06 it was Portsmouth. 2006-07 was West Ham’s turn and last year Bolton and Fulham were breathing huge sighs of relief. One team recovers from almost certain relegation to survive almost every season. West Brom are 7/1 with Paddy Power to perform another Great Escape but it looks like being too big an ask. Middlesbrough may be four points from safety but with Hull, Fulham and Aston Villa yet to visit the Riverside and away games with off-form Bolton and Newcastle, they are not dead and buried yet.

Posted: March 24th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment