Why Newcastle and Boro may get the result that both dread

Newcastle/Middlesbrough, 8pm, Setanta S1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Unless West Brom do the unthinkable, there will be no Great Escape this season. If either Newcastle or Middlesbrough survive it won’t be because of a remarkable turnaround or inspirational management, it will be thanks to Hull’s ineptitude and a scrappy win or two. The stats suggest that neither Alan Shearer or Gareth Southgate will get the three points they desperately need tonight though, with Hull looking like the most likely winners:

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1. The last four meetings between Newcastle and Middlesbrough at St James’ Park have finished level.

2. In total, seven of the last nine clashes between the two sides have been drawn, including each of the last four.

3. Newcastle have drawn 13 league games this season, more than any other club in the division.

Posted: May 11th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Will Middlesbrough or Newcastle reveal themselves as unlikely escapologists?

Click here for the latest odds on Premier League survival

Alan Shearer, the new Messiah, is getting desperate. His plan to get Michael Owen scoring backfired, he keeps ineffectively tinkering with players and formations and even turned to an opera singer for inspiration. But while Newcastle look hopeless now, the most memorable acts of escapology are the unexplainable ones - transformations from hopelessness to safety that nobody anticipates. Will any of this year’s bottom three join the elite group of teams who have saved their season with just four games to spare?

» In the last twelve seasons, only five sides have escaped relegation having been in the bottom three with four games to go.

» The encouraging news for Newcastle, Middlesbrough and West Brom is that three of those five “Great Escapes” have taken place in the last two seasons – West Ham two years ago and Bolton and Fulham last year.

Posted: April 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Man City are good value for revenge on Fulham at 10/11

Man City/Fulham, Sunday 4pm, Sky Sprts 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Twelve months ago Fulham came from 2-0 down in the last 21 minutes to win 3-2 at Eastlands, kick-starting their Great Escape. However, Manchester City are a lot stronger at home right now and the 10/11 offered by Bet365 looks like great value:

» Manchester City have won seven consecutive home games, six of which came in the Premier League.

» Fulham have won just one of their 15 away league games this season.

» City have the third best home points average in the division.

Posted: April 10th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

The Sack Race has ended with Gibson backing Southgate

A round-up of all the long-standing football markets

There’s not much football taking place this week so chickendinner decided to take a look at how some of the season-long betting markets are shaping up as the season reaches its climax:

Next Manager to Go
It looks like there will be no more sackings this season after Middlesbrough chairman Steve Gibson pledged his support to Gareth Southgate. Sky Bet now offer 2/5 on nobody else losing their job while Southgate is 4/1 and Tony Mowbray 6/1.

Top Goalscorer
Cristiano Ronaldo and Steven Gerrard trail Nicolas Anelka by two goals but news of the Frenchman’s toe injury has seen them both over him in Paddy Power’s market. Ronaldo is 13/8, Gerrard 15/8 and Anelka 9/4.

To Avoid Relegation
In 2004-05 it was West Brom, in 2005-06 it was Portsmouth. 2006-07 was West Ham’s turn and last year Bolton and Fulham were breathing huge sighs of relief. One team recovers from almost certain relegation to survive almost every season. West Brom are 7/1 with Paddy Power to perform another Great Escape but it looks like being too big an ask. Middlesbrough may be four points from safety but with Hull, Fulham and Aston Villa yet to visit the Riverside and away games with off-form Bolton and Newcastle, they are not dead and buried yet.

Posted: March 24th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five reasons why Tony Adams should feel very hard done by

Portsmouth sack luckless Adams after a home loss to Liverpool

Every Monday, chickendinner reveals five interesting stats about the weekend’s football. However, after the news broke last night that Tony Adams had been sacked by Portsmouth, this week we are instead providing five reasons to sympathise with the former Arsenal captain:

1. Adams was only given sixteen games in charge of Portsmouth this season, which was one game less than former Blackburn boss Paul Ince had.

2. Despite the criticisms of Portsmouth’s defence under Adams, they lost by three goals just twice in his 22 games this season. In comparison, Harry Redknapp lost four of his 13 games by three or more and all three of their heaviest defeats this season came under the stewardship of the Spurs’ boss.

3. Adams lost five of his first twelve Premier League games before being forced to sell Jermain Defoe. That again compares well with his predecessor, who lost seven of his last twelve as manager.

Posted: February 9th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why Fulham/Manchester City promises to provide goals

Fulham/Man City, 12.45 Sat, Sky Sports 1, Best Odds, Free Bets

While there have been a lot of games recently that have left us scratching our heads wondering why they have been chosen for television, this match is worth giving a chance. Last season the two sides drew 3-3 at Craven Cottage and in the return tie Fulham scored three times in the last 21 minutes to overcome a 2-0 deficit and start their “Great Escape”. Encouragingly, there has been more goals in this fixture with every passing year:

There were two goals scored in this fixture in 2004-05, three in 2005-06, four in 2006-07 then six last season. The same pattern has been true in the encounters at the City of Manchester, with the number of goals increasing from two to three to four to five. The bookmakers are clued up to this trend however and the best price on over 3.5 goals is 13/5 with Bet365 while Paddy Power offer 6/1 on over 4.5.

More facts about this fixture:

Posted: December 5th, 2008 by admin | Add Comment