And the winner of the 2009 Grand National will be…

chickendinner’s five step guide to identifying this year’s king

Don’t resort to picking names out of hats or playing a game of pin the tail on the form guide, chickendinner have come up with a foolproof plan to identify this year’s Grand National winner. We eliminated all the likely losers who don’t fit the profile of a champion until we were left with just one horse standing. Read on to find out who it was:

Step One
14 of the last 17 winners started in the top eight of the betting. Therefore it must be one of these guys (three are joint-eighth):
My Will, Butler’s Cabin, Rambling Minster, State of Play, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Darkness, Comply or Die, Black Apalachi or Irish Invader

Step Two
10 of the last 13 winners have been aged either 9 or 10. That means we say goodbye to Rambling Minster (11), Hear The Echo (8), Parsons Legacy (11) and Irish Invader (8). Still fighting are:

Posted: April 3rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Grand National 2009: This year’s frontrunners (Part 2)

15 of the last 18 winners have started at 20/1 or less. That means there are eleven major contenders: My Will, Butler’s Cabin, Rambling Minster, State of Play, Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Irish Invader, Kilbeggan Blade and the chickendinner pick Darkness…

» Just one horse in the last twenty years has carried eleven stones or more to victory - Hedgehunter (2005) - which doesn’t bode well for My Will, State of Play, Black Apalachi, Comply or Die and Hear The Echo, who were all dealt with harshly by the handicapper.

» Rambling Minster and Parsons Legacy are hampered by the fact only two horses aged eleven or older have won in the last 13 years.

Posted: April 3rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Grand National 2009: This year’s frontrunners (Part 1)

15 of the last 18 winners have started at 20/1 or less. That means there are eleven major contenders: My Will, Butler’s Cabin, Rambling Minster, State of Play, Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Irish Invader, Kilbeggan Blade and the chickendinner pick Darkness…

» Red Rum was the last horse to win the Grand National in successive years and that was 35 years ago. No jockey or trainer has retained since then either which is bad news for Comply Or Die, Timmy Murphy and David Pipe.

» The last seven winners have all been Irish. Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy and Irish Invader are the leading challengers from across the Irish Sea this year.

Posted: April 3rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Grand National 2009: Avoid the French horses, back Irish

It’s a century since a French-bred horse last won at Aintree

In each of the last two Grand Nationals, the top four places were all taken by Irish-bred horses (the ones listed with IRE after their names) while eleven French-bred horses (FR after their names) came nowhere in both, extending their winless run to a century. For your convenience, here is a list of the expected French and Irish-bred runners, alongside their Boylesports odds:

French Horses:
My Will 6/1
Butler’s Cabin 9/1
L’Ami 20/1
Golden Flight 50/1
Mon Mome 50/1
Nine De Sivola 50/1
Musica Bella 66/1

Irish Horses

Posted: March 31st, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment