Eight reasons not to back Sea The Stars in the Irish Derby

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Sea The Stars proved us wrong by beating Fame and Glory at Epsom earlier this month but we’re certain that trainer Aidan O’Brien will get revenge at the Curragh on Sunday. Here’s why:

1. Sea The Stars is attempting to complete a 2,000 Guineas, English and Irish Derby treble. The last time such a feat was managed was by Nijinsky way back in 1970.

2. Aidan O’Brien has trained six Irish Derby winners, including each of the last three and he has had 16 placed in the last decade. Second favourite Fame and Glory and Masterofthehorse are among his ten possible entries this year.

3. Four of the last six winners, including each of the last three, were all beaten in the Epsom Derby. Of this year’s entries Fame and Glory, Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword and Gan Amhras ran. Each of the last six Irish Derby winners lost their previous outing.

Posted: June 25th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Everything you need to know to bet on the Ascot Gold Cup

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Photo Credit: Sean Dempsey/PA Wire

For many, the Gold Cup is the highlight of Royal Ascot and the big story this year is whether eight-year-old Yeats will be able to defy the age trends and become the first ever four-time winner of the race. Here are some stats to help you decide whether or not to back the favourite to make history:

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Pointers

» The last ten Gold Cup winners were all drawn in even-numbered stalls, with three of the last five winners drawing stall four. Veracity will be occupying that stall this year.

» 13 of the last 16 winners had won over two miles or more prior to the race. Of this year’s ten horses, only Geordieland, Veracity, Yeats and Patkai have been victorious over that distance.

» The last nine winners all triumphed in a Group 1 or 2 race prior to their Ascot success – Sagara never has.

» Geordieland and Hindu Kush are the only horses in the field to have won their last race – five of the last six champions won their final outing before the Gold Cup.

Age and weight trends

Posted: June 17th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Tartan Bearer could end Sir Michael Stoute’s drought in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes

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Champion jockey Ryan Moore is the 15/8 favourite to ride Tartan Bearer to victory in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. If he delivers, it will end trainer Sir Michael Stoute’s 18-year wait for a third winner in the race. Here are some stats which suggest that the favourite will deliver:

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» Eight of the last 12 winners won their final outing before the Prince of Wales’s Stakes. Of this year’s entries only Tartan Bearer, Vision D’etat, Never On Sunday and Virtual did so.

» Virtual has never won over more than a mile though and this race is 1m 2f. Just one of the last 24 winners hadn’t won at 1m 1f or more beforehand.

Posted: June 16th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Royal Ascot: Eight stats about the festival’s opening race

Stoute and bin Suroor’s Queen Anne Stakes duopoly may resume

One of the biggest festivals of the flat racing season gets underway tomorrow with the Queen Anne Stakes, which is finally poised with no overwhelming favourite and three credible contenders. Here are some stats to help you bet on Tuesday’s 2.30pm:

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» 12 of the last 13 winners have been trained by Saeed bin Suroor (seven), Sir Michael Stoute (three) or Aidan O’Brien (two). O’Brien doesn’t have a horse in the race this year, while bin Suroor has favourite Gladiatorus and Alexandros and Stoute has Main Aim.

» Eight-year-olds Cesare and Mac Love are cursed by the fact no horse aged six or older has triumphed since Ardoon in 1976.

» The last two winners have been five-year-olds, with Arabian Gleam the only one in this year’s race, while everyone else except Cesare and Mac Love are four. Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17.

Posted: June 15th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Fame and Glory should end Aidan O’Brien’s lean streak

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Two years ago one of the most famous ever Derby jinxes was ended when Frankie Dettori won at the 15th attempts. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has been victorious at Epsom twice before but hasn’t triumphed for seven years, with 28 of his horses failing over that time.

chickendinner fancy 4/1 shot Fame and Glory to end that losing streak though. The three-year-old has won both the Ballysax Stakes and Derrinstown Derby Trail, as did O’Brien’s previous two winners Galileo (2001) and High Chaparral (2002).

Posted: June 5th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

And the winner of the 2009 Grand National will be…

chickendinner’s five step guide to identifying this year’s king

Don’t resort to picking names out of hats or playing a game of pin the tail on the form guide, chickendinner have come up with a foolproof plan to identify this year’s Grand National winner. We eliminated all the likely losers who don’t fit the profile of a champion until we were left with just one horse standing. Read on to find out who it was:

Step One
14 of the last 17 winners started in the top eight of the betting. Therefore it must be one of these guys (three are joint-eighth):
My Will, Butler’s Cabin, Rambling Minster, State of Play, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Darkness, Comply or Die, Black Apalachi or Irish Invader

Step Two
10 of the last 13 winners have been aged either 9 or 10. That means we say goodbye to Rambling Minster (11), Hear The Echo (8), Parsons Legacy (11) and Irish Invader (8). Still fighting are:

Posted: April 3rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment