Serena Williams is 2.22 to overcome Elena Dementieva

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Elena Dementieva [1.81] starts as favourite against Serena Williams tonight having triumphed in their last three meetings. However Serena’s price doesn’t take into account her excellent Grand Slam semi-final record:

» Serena has won twelve of her fourteen career Grand Slam semi-finals and has been victorious in her last six.

» In contrast, Dementieva has a two out of six strike rate. She was eliminated at this stage at the last two Grand Slams and hasn’t reached the final of one since the 2004 US Open.

» Serena wins this tournament once every two years and after victories in 2003, 2005 and 2007, it is her turn again this year. Every time she has reached the final four at Melbourne Park she has been crowned champion.

» They have only met once previously at a Grand Slam, with Serena winning in straight sets at Wimbledon 2003.

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Posted: January 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

If you think Nadal will win the Australian Open, bet now!

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Roger Federer’s price dropped from 3.45 to 2.16 after a convincing victory over Juan Martin del Potro so expect to see former favourite Rafael Nadal’s price of 2.74 plummet if he beats Gilles Simon tomorrow morning:

» Nadal is the only man yet to drop a set in this year’s tournament. In the last two years, the person who has gone the furthest without dropping a set (Federer in 2007, Djokovic in 2008) has been victorious.

» The world number one has improved every year at Melbourne Park. In 2004 he got to round three and in 2005 he got to round four. Then the Spaniard missed out through injury in 2006 before reaching the quarter-finals in 2007 and the semis last year.

» If it comes down to him and Federer, Nadal will be confident. He won all four meetings with the world number two last year and has a 10-4 record over him in finals.

Posted: January 27th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Andy Murray 4.6 to beat Jurgen Melzer in four sets

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Andy Murray has barely broken sweat so far but that will change against Jurgen Melzer. chickendinner fancy the Austrian to take a set but if you disagree, Betfair generously offer 1.52 on Murray winning in straight sets:

» Murray won all three of his meetings against Melzer last year but has yet to conquer him in straight sets.

» Even when the Brit enjoyed his best ever Grand Slam at last year’s US Open, he had to work hard to overcome Melzer in the third round. The Austrian went two sets up before Murray came back to win.

» Murray has only once got through the first three rounds of a Grand Slam without dropping a set.

Are you an early bird? Murray is due on court at 8.30am on Saturday and you can watch him free of charge live on Betfair just by opening an account. Click here to do that and claim a free £10 bet.

Posted: January 23rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Bet on Andy Murray’s run of 6-2 set wins continuing

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Andy Murray is just 1.02 to beat Marcel Granollers and 1.26 to win in straight sets so without backing heavily, there isn’t much money to be made. Instead, chickendinner points you in the direction of the “1st Set Correct Score” market where enticing odds of 5.0 are available on Murray winning 6-2:

» At the Qatar Open, six of Murray’s ten set wins were achieved by a 6-2 scoreline, including the opening sets in his first and second round matches.

» Murray started his first round Australian Open match against Andrei Pavel with a 6-2 opening set victory too.

» The last set the two players contested against one another in Barcelona three years ago finished 6-2 in the Brit’s favour.

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Posted: January 21st, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Baghdatis is great value at 2.44 to beat Soderling

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Upset Alert! Marcos Baghdatis [2.44] has never beaten Robin Soderling on a hard court but the former finalist should end that humiliating record on Wednesday morning:

On the last four occasions that Baghdatis has got through the first round of a Grand Slam he has followed up with victory in the second.

The Cypriot has got past this stage on three of his previous four visits to Melbourne Park.

Soderling has never been past the second round at the Australian Open and has only reached the third round at three of his last eighteen Grand Slams.

Baghdatis had never beaten Julien Benneteau before passing him in straight sets on Monday while Soderling dropped a set against Robert Kendrick, who had never previously won one at the Australian Open.

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Posted: January 20th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment