Statistics on all four televised FA Cup fifth round games

Will we see more Tic Tac adverts than goals this time around?

Fulham, Chelsea and Manchester United may be under pressure to avoid FA Cup giantkillings but that is nothing compared to the scrutiny ITV’s coverage will suffer following their Merseyside derby blunder. Here’s our guide to the four games that will be shown on TV, subject to further “technical problems”:

Swansea v Fulham (12.45pm, Saturday, ITV1)
The last time these two sides met in 1997, they were both competing in the fourth tier of English football. Despite not winning away from home in the league all season, Fulham have won on the road in the last two rounds of the FA Cup. However, Swansea are unbeaten in fifteen games, nine of which have been draws, so Fulham’s best chance might be to take the game to a replay. Three of the last five meetings between the two sides in Wales have finished 2-2, which is 16/1 on 888sport, while both sides won one each 2-1.

Watford v Chelsea (5.30pm, Saturday, Setanta Sports 1)
It’s Lampard versus Lampard at Vicarage Road this weekend as the Chelsea midfielder comes up against the team where his dad works as a football consultant for former Blues reserve manager Brendan Rodgers. Chelsea have failed to win either of their two previous FA Cup away games against Watford, drawing one and losing one. Even if that record ends, it could be worth betting on the visitors conceding for the eighth straight cup match. The Hornets have lost just three of their last ten home games and have only failed to fire in one of those. Bet365 offer evens on both teams scoring.

Everton v Aston Villa (2.30pm, Sunday, Setanta Sports 1)

Posted: February 13th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five reasons why Liverpool won’t win in ninety minutes

Everton/Liverpool, 8.10pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Liverpool looked to have finally got their season back on track by beating Chelsea but the high of that win has been tempered by bewilderment at Rafael Benitez’s decision to sell Robbie Keane without replacing him. Despite losing to Manchester United, Everton are in great form and even if they are eliminated tonight, here’s five reasons why we think Liverpool will need extra-time or penalties to do it:

1. The two sides couldn’t be separated in their two meetings last month, with both games finishing 1-1.

2. Liverpool have won just seven of their last seventeen domestic games, including just one of their last five. They have drawn their last two away games.

3. Everton have lost just one of their last six matches against Big Four opposition and have drawn at home with Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal since losing to Liverpool in September.

Posted: February 4th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Previews of tonight’s other FA Cup fourth round replays

Three more games that have conquered the snow will take place

While the Merseyside derby is the big game of the day, there are three other important FA Cup replays taking place. Martin O’Neill looks to avoid more FA Cup disappointment as they host Doncaster, Blackburn face Sunderland for the fifth time in under three months and Billy Davies and Nigel Clough face their former clubs once more:

Aston Villa v Doncaster
Doncaster are unbeaten in four straight away games, winning three, having previously gone twelve matches without a win on the road. In contrast, Villa have won just five of their last sixteen home games and were eliminated from the Carling Cup at home to Championship strugglers QPR. Martin O’Neill’s side have only been past the fourth round once in eight years so they will be wary of an upset.

Blackburn v Sunderland

Posted: February 4th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Betfair go 2.54 on tonight’s derby featuring over 2.5 goals

Everton/Liverpool, 8.10pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Goals have been in short supply in recent Merseyside derbies which is why under 2.5 goals is priced up as low as 4/7 tonight but if there is going to be a game where that run ends then it’s likely to be at Goodison Park. Here’s why:

» The last four Merseyside derbies, and five of the last six, have all featured two goals or fewer.

» All six of Liverpool’s games in 2009 have contained under 2.5 goals.

» Similarly, all six of Everton’s games so far this year have seen two or less goals scored.

Posted: February 4th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Statistics to help you bet on Merseyside derby goalscorers

Everton/Liverpool, 8.10pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Steven Gerrard has been Liverpool’s hero in the last two Merseyside derbies but is that run likely to continue tonight? chickendinner have examined the prospects of all the most likely goalscorers:

Tim Cahill - The Australian has scored four goals in eight Merseyside derbies and has fired nine times against Big Four opposition.

Mikel Arteta - The Spanish midfielder has notched three times in his last three appearances at Goodison Park but has only ever scored once against Big Four opposition (Chelsea in 2006).

Marouane Fellaini - Since a run of three goals in four games in October, Fellaini has fired just once in twelve.

Steven Gerrard - The England midfielder scored in each of the previous two Merseyside derbies this month, although he has only scored in three of his last twelve away games.

Posted: February 4th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five useful stats for betting on today’s Merseyside derby

Liverpool/Everton, 4pm, Setanta Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Everton left Anfield with a point on Monday and 6000 of their fans are making the short trip today in the hope of seeing them go one better. Here are five stats about today’s game:

1. Liverpool have drawn three of their last four home games. Boylesports and Ladbrokes offer 5/2 on them doing the same today.

2. Everton have gone ten years without a win at Anfield although they have only lost four of their nine visits there since.

3. Liverpool have won nine FA Cup games against Everton while the Toffees have won just six. Five have been draws.

4. David Moyes’ side have reached the fifth round in just one of the last six seasons.

5. Tim Cahill has scored in four of his last seven Merseyside derbies. He is 7/2 with Paddy Power to do so at any time today.

Posted: January 25th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment