Chelsea need to repeat their Anfield heroics to get a good result away to Barcelona

Barcelona/Chelsea, 7.45pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Whereas the thought of Chelsea and Liverpool clashing again in the Champions League this season was greeted gloomily, the fifth pairing of Barcelona and the Blues in ten years has been eagerly anticipated. Hopefully it won’t fail to match expectations like Barca’s semi-final encounters with Manchester United did last season:

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ADVANTAGE BARCELONA?
Chelsea haven’t won a Champions League game at the Nou Camp - losing two and drawing two - and Barcelona have a fantastic home record this season - winning 22, drawing three and losing just two of their 27 games there this season. They have scored in every home match since last year’s semi-final first leg against Manchester United. Chelsea haven’t won any of their last seven Champions League matches on foreign soil. Pep Guardiola’s side are generally available at 8/11.

Posted: April 28th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Man City are good value for revenge on Fulham at 10/11

Man City/Fulham, Sunday 4pm, Sky Sprts 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Twelve months ago Fulham came from 2-0 down in the last 21 minutes to win 3-2 at Eastlands, kick-starting their Great Escape. However, Manchester City are a lot stronger at home right now and the 10/11 offered by Bet365 looks like great value:

» Manchester City have won seven consecutive home games, six of which came in the Premier League.

» Fulham have won just one of their 15 away league games this season.

» City have the third best home points average in the division.

Posted: April 10th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Hamburg’s strong home form isn’t good news for Man City

Hamburg/Man City, Thurs 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Martin Jol’s Hamburg are available at 11/10 with Boylesports to win the home leg of their UEFA Cup quarter-final clash with Manchester City. A glance at their home record suggests that those odds are very generous:

» Hamburg have played 21 matches at the HSH Nordbank Arena, winning 16 of those, drawing three and losing just two.

» In contrast, Manchester City have won just one of their last 19 on the road, drawing seven and losing 11 of those games.

» Only five of the last 14 English UEFA Cup quarter-finalists have progressed through to the final four. Even more significantly, only one won the away leg, with nine losing it.

Posted: April 8th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five stats about Barcelona’s clash with Bayern Munich

Barcelona/Bayern, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 3, Free Bets, Best Odds

These two teams are the highest scorers in this year’s Champions League so this clash has the potential to be the most exciting of this year’s competition so far. Last year’s “dream match” between Barcelona and Manchester United was such a letdown that even Liverpool/Chelsea managed to be more exciting. Hopefully this one won’t go the same way:

1. The two sides last met ten seasons ago in the Champions League group stages. On that occasion Bayern Munich won both ties, triumphing 1-0 at home and 2-1 away. The German side are 28/1 with Boylesports to win by that scoreline tonight.

2. Barcelona are yet to keep a home clean sheet in the tournament proper this season and have conceded five goals in their last two European matches at the Nou Camp.

Posted: April 8th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why 13/10 Liverpool should be capable of beating Chelsea

Liverpool/Chelsea, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2, Free Bets, Best Odds

Liverpool have clashed with Chelsea in each of the last four seasons in the Champions League and on every occasion, they have failed to win the first meeting. However, with the home side playing their best football of the season and having already got the better of Chelsea twice this year, they won’t have a better opportunity to end that run. Here’s why Liverpool should justify the 13/10 offered by Paddy Power:

» Liverpool haven’t been beaten at home in the Premier or Champions League since December 2007, when they lost 1-0 to Manchester United.

» The Reds have only lost one of their last eight meetings with Chelsea in ninety minutes, going unbeaten in five and winning the last two.

» Rafael Benitez’s side have won their last five games, scoring sixteen while conceding just once.

Posted: April 8th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five reasons why Arsenal are unlikely to win at El Madrigal

Villarreal/Arsenal, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Arsenal are enjoying their best form in over a year and are capable of delivering on the road in Europe - as results away to Inter and AC Milan have shown. But while they are capable of excellence, more often than not they disappoint, which is why we find it hard to justify backing the visitors at the general price of 8/5:

1. Arsenal have won just three of their last fourteen Champions League away games (excluding qualifiers), which is a win percentage of just 21%.

2. Today is the four-year anniversary of Villarreal’s last European home defeat. Since then they have played fifteen, winning eight and drawing seven.

3. The Yellow Submarine haven’t lost at home in 2009 and have only lost two of their last 34 games at El Madrigal. Those losses came against league leaders Barcelona and Real Valladolid, who have won seven games against the top seven this season.

Posted: April 7th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment