Grand National 2009: This year’s frontrunners (Part 1)

15 of the last 18 winners have started at 20/1 or less. That means there are eleven major contenders: My Will, Butler’s Cabin, Rambling Minster, State of Play, Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy, Irish Invader, Kilbeggan Blade and the chickendinner pick Darkness…

» Red Rum was the last horse to win the Grand National in successive years and that was 35 years ago. No jockey or trainer has retained since then either which is bad news for Comply Or Die, Timmy Murphy and David Pipe.

» The last seven winners have all been Irish. Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die, Hear The Echo, Parsons Legacy and Irish Invader are the leading challengers from across the Irish Sea this year.

Posted: April 3rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Grand National: Writing off some of this year’s no-hopers

chickendinner is the place to go for stats on Aintree’s big race

Before we break your heart by telling you that the 100/1 horse whose name you like the sound of doesn’t stand a chance, here’s an encouraging stat to kick off with. In seven of the last nine Grand Nationals, at least one horse with a starting price of 33/1 or better has been placed. But for every rough diamond that has lined up at Aintree there have been dozens of donkeys. Here are a few methods to help you separate the reasonably good long shots from the disturbingly bad:

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WRITING HORSES OFF

» Not since Gunner Welburn six years ago has a placed horse in the most recent Welsh National finished in the top four at the Grand National. Cornish Sett looks like being the latest horse to suffer at the hands of that lean streak.

» Just three eight-year-olds have won this race in the last 35 years – Corbiere (1983), Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002). Of the long shots, this trend is bad news for Battlecry, Nine De Sivola, Flintoff and Nozic.

» A mare hasn’t won the Grand National since Nickel Coin triumphed in 1951. Musica Bella and Pomme Tiepy are unlikely to buck that trend.

Posted: March 30th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 2 Comments