Mallorca are 14/1 with Bet365 to repeat their May heroics

Barcelona/Mallorca, 8.30pm, Sky Sports 3, Free Bets, Best Odds

Real Mallorca travel to Barcelona for tonight’s Copa del Rey semi-final first-leg hoping to relive their win there last May, when they came back from 2-0 down to become the only side besides Real Madrid and Villarreal to win a league match at the Nou Camp in the last three years.

Bet365 offer 14/1 on the visitors being victorious again but Barcelona haven’t lost a domestic home game since that day, with the Catalan club winning twelve and drawing just two this season. Just last month they overcame Mallorca, who are currently embroiled in a relegation battle and have won just one away game all season, 3-1.

Like Barcelona, Mallorca are unbeaten in this year’s competition which may make the 7/2 available at Paddy Power on them not losing (double chance) appetising. It is also worth noting that while Pep Guardiola’s side are the most successful in the competition’s history, they haven’t reached the final in eleven years and have lost out at this stage in the last two. Bet365 go 15/2 on Mallorca triumphing over two legs.

Posted: February 5th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Liverpool can bounce back after another awful January

Rafael Benitez knows how to finish with a flourish (this is a fact!)

Liverpool have won just three of their last ten games which has led their title odds to drift out to 8/1 with Bet365 and Boylesports. Here are a few reasons why Rafael Benitez’s side aren’t out of it yet:

» Liverpool have failed to win a league game this January, drawing all three that they contested, but that is nothing new. Last season they played four league times in January, drawing three and losing one.

» After last season’s January slump they went on to finish the season in emphatic style. They won eleven, drew three and lost one of their final fifteen, meaning that they were comfortably the best team in the league from February onwards. Over that period they averaged 2.40 points a game to Manchester United’s 2.14.

Posted: January 29th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Is the demise of the home win specific to English football?

chickendinner sees if away wins are on the rise in the continent

On Monday, chickendinner revealed that the current percentage of away wins in the Premier League (34%) is the highest it has ever been in the English top-flight. Today we have expanded our research to look at some of the big three European leagues - La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga - to see if the same trend of away wins rising and home wins falling is present there:

La Liga
This season there has been a 48% home win rate with 29% away wins in Spain’s top tier, creating a margin of 19% compared to just 7% in the Premier League. There is no sign of away wins becoming more common in Spain recently, as 29% was the figure in both the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons. The average of the ten seasons prior to this one was 26% but the figure has remained constant for two-and-a-half seasons now and is still lower than that of the Premier League’s.

Serie A

Posted: December 17th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five reasons why Ramos won’t be beaten in El Clasico

Barcelona/Real Madrid, 9pm Sat, Sky Spts 1, Best Odds, Free Bets

Real Madrid breezed past Zenit 3-0 last night but Juande Ramos’ first league game is a much tougher proposition as they travel to league leaders Barcelona. Former coach Bernd Schuster said last week that victory was “impossible” and the bookies agree, with Paddy Power offering 11/8 on Real Madrid avoiding defeat, while Betfair price the draw at 3/1 and the away win at 5.4/1. Here are five reasons why the champions can get a result though:

1. Real Madrid have lost just three of their last seventeen meetings with Barcelona and are unbeaten in five.

2. The fact the game is being played at the Nou Camp isn’t really a disadvantage for los blancos. They haven’t lost any of their last three visits and were victorious there last season.

Posted: December 12th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why Real Madrid should win La Liga again

Past trends indicate three in a row for Calderon and co

Once the sangria induced hangovers have cleared, Spain’s footballing fraternity will have to stop basking in their Euro 2008 glory and look forward to kicking lumps out of each other in the new La Liga season. Because we care so much, here’s a guide to just about everything that’s going to happen.

Click here to place your bets

To find trends and research results, head to the chickendinner stats centre

» Real Madrid have secured successive La Liga titles but not since 1990-1994 (Barcelona) have any Primera Liga side managed to retain the championship three years in a row. However, the last time Real Madrid won consecutive league titles, they went on to win five in succession – 1985-1990.

» chickendinner superfact: Celta Vigo finished sixth in 2005/06 and were relegated the very next season. Real Zaragoza ended the 2006/07 season in sixth position and also found themselves relegated a year later. That spells bad news for Racing Santander who were this year’s sixth placed side.

» In four of the past five seasons, the side that finished fourth in La Liga went on to struggle in the next campaign, finishing tenth or lower and on one occasion being relegated. Atletico Madrid may be in for a long season.

Posted: August 29th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment