Hamburg’s strong home form isn’t good news for Man City

Hamburg/Man City, Thurs 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Martin Jol’s Hamburg are available at 11/10 with Boylesports to win the home leg of their UEFA Cup quarter-final clash with Manchester City. A glance at their home record suggests that those odds are very generous:

» Hamburg have played 21 matches at the HSH Nordbank Arena, winning 16 of those, drawing three and losing just two.

» In contrast, Manchester City have won just one of their last 19 on the road, drawing seven and losing 11 of those games.

» Only five of the last 14 English UEFA Cup quarter-finalists have progressed through to the final four. Even more significantly, only one won the away leg, with nine losing it.

Posted: April 8th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Five reasons why Arsenal are unlikely to win at El Madrigal

Villarreal/Arsenal, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Arsenal are enjoying their best form in over a year and are capable of delivering on the road in Europe - as results away to Inter and AC Milan have shown. But while they are capable of excellence, more often than not they disappoint, which is why we find it hard to justify backing the visitors at the general price of 8/5:

1. Arsenal have won just three of their last fourteen Champions League away games (excluding qualifiers), which is a win percentage of just 21%.

2. Today is the four-year anniversary of Villarreal’s last European home defeat. Since then they have played fifteen, winning eight and drawing seven.

3. The Yellow Submarine haven’t lost at home in 2009 and have only lost two of their last 34 games at El Madrigal. Those losses came against league leaders Barcelona and Real Valladolid, who have won seven games against the top seven this season.

Posted: April 7th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

How do Chelsea fare away to lower league opposition?

Use our interactive Betfair Wizard to find all the answers

Chelsea draw lower league opposition all the time in the domestic cups but what is their record like away from home against them? This interactive wizard that we have produced with Betfair provides all the answers.

There are fish representing the last twenty lower league teams Chelsea have faced on the road. Can you spot a lucrative betting pattern for tomorrow’s match against Coventry. Is there a time where the first goal is often scored? Which team usually scores first? Click here to find out now.

Bonus Stat: Chelsea have won just one of their last nine trips to Coventry.

Posted: March 6th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 2 Comments

Fulham will test Manchester United’s sextuple credentials

Fulham/Man Utd, Saturday 5.15pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

On Wednesday night the task facing Manchester United this weekend looked a lot less daunting than it previously did as Hull inflicted Fulham’s second home defeat of the season. However, this is still going to be a big hurdle for the sextuple chasers. Roy Hodgson’s side remain the third best home side in the Premier League, they have a strong record against the big teams this season and Manchester United were knocked out at this stage last season, ending their treble bid. Can Fulham stop them? Here are the key facts:

Upset…

» Fulham have lost just two of their last sixteen home games, winning eleven.

» The Cottagers have played the top five on six separate occasions this season, keeping clean sheets on four and losing just once.

Posted: March 6th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why Everton/Middlesboro is unlikely to feature many goals

Everton/Boro, Sunday 4pm, SetantaSports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Everton are unbeaten in five against Middlesbrough and have won three of the last four so the home win looks like the most likely outcome in this weekend’s FA Cup quarter-final. Boro have upset the form book in recent weeks with wins against West Ham and Liverpool while the Toffees eliminated their Merseyside rivals and Aston Villa to reach this stage. If you aren’t keen on backing a winner then allow us to present the case for there being under 2.5 goals, which is available at 3/4 on Betfair:

» Fourteen of the last fifteen encounters between these two sides have finished with two or fewer goals being scored.

» The 4-0 loss to Tottenham was Middlesbrough’s first game in eight to have featured more than two goals.

Posted: March 5th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment