Why there should be at least three goals scored at Wembley

England/Slovakia, 5.15pm, Setanta Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Some fans feared that England would become more boring to watch with an Italian in charge but the truth is that they were already coma-inducingly bad most of the time. Despite concerns that Fabio Capello would look to grind out 1-0 wins, there has already been a 5-1, a 4-1 and a 3-0. Here’s why Saturday’s friendly should also feature over 2.5 goals, which is 5/6 with Sky Bet:

» Seven consecutive Slovakia matches have contained at least three goals, while four of the last five have had over 3.5, which is available at 7/4 with Paddy Power.

» Eight of England’s last nine home games have featured more than 2.5 goals.

Posted: March 27th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Slovakia: impressive in qualifying, awful in friendlies

England/Slovakia, 5.15pm, Setanta Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Photo Credit: Lewis Whyld/PA

The only one of England’s four home games under Fabio Capello that they failed to win came against the Czech Republic, who are below Slovakia in the incredibly tight World Cup Qualifying Group 3. However, Slovakia have a curious habit of performing worse when the pressure is off, putting their feet up in friendlies rather than carrying over their form in competitive matches.

» Slovakia have won four of their last five competitive games - an impressive record for a team who have never qualified for an international tournament.

» However, they have won just one of their last eleven friendlies. That win came at home to Liechtenstein, the team ranked 151st in the world.

» Their two friendly matches so far this year - at home to Ukraine and away to Cyprus - have ended in 3-2 defeats. England are 41.0 on Betfair to win by that scoreline tomorrow.

Posted: March 27th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Liverpool’s goal difference, Spurs’ revival and Villa’s terrible record in March

Five stats about this weekend’s football

1. Ten days ago Manchester United’s goal difference was eleven goals superior to Liverpool’s, which was also worse than Chelsea’s. Over the course of just two games, there has been a 13-goal swing in Liverpool’s favour and the reigning champions now only have the league’s third-best goal difference.

2. Only once in the last ten years has the team with the best goal difference not won the league. That was in 2002-03 when Arsenal’s was superior to that of the champions Manchester United.

3. Tottenham’s six-match unbeaten league run is their strongest since the end of 2006-07, when they finished fifth. If they take a point at Blackburn in a fortnight it will be their longest since September-October 2005.

Posted: March 23rd, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment