Eight steps to identify this season’s Golden Boot winner

Click here for the latest odds on who will be 2009-10’s top-scorer

The bookmakers seem to agree on who the 15 leading contenders to be next season’s Premier League top-scorer are: Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard, Michael Owen, Robinho, Robin van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor, Dimitar Berbatov, Jermain Defoe, Carlos Tevez, Andrey Arshavin, Frank Lampard and Roque Santa Cruz. We’ve used some trends to whittle down the 15 and leave one man standing:

Over the last decade Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-01) is the only player to have won it in his first season with a new club.
That rules out: Michael Owen, Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz

The last nine winners were all playing for a Big Four side.
That rules out: Robinho, Jermain Defoe

Cristiano Ronaldo is the only player to have been Premier League top-scorer without always playing as an out-and-out striker.
That rules out: Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Andrey Arshavin

The last British top-scorer was Kevin Phillips in 1999-00.
That rules out: Wayne Rooney

Still standing: Fernando Torres, Didier Drogba, Nicolas Anelka, Robin van

Posted: July 10th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Athletic Bilbao are 7.2 to end Barcelona’s treble bid tonight

Bilbao/Barcelona, Copa del Rey Final, 9pm, Free Bets, Best Odds

There couldn’t be a more fitting final - the two most successful teams in the competition’s history vying to become the first to win it 25 times (if you count 1902 as a Bilbao triumph). King Juan Carlos might not be looking forward to it quite as enthusiastically though given the prospect of thousands of Catalan and Basque fans jeering both him and the Spanish national anthem.

Barcelona are missing Rafael Marquez, Eric Abidal, Andres Iniesta and Thierry Henry and are struggling with fatigue ahead of their 12th match in 40 days. Here’s why Athletic Bilbao are worth backing at 7.2 with Betfair:

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» Bilbao are hitting form at the right time having won three and drawn one of their last five, killing off any danger of a relegation battle.

» They also have a massive fitness advantage having played four games less than Barcelona since the start of April.

Posted: May 13th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment

Seven number-based stats about Real Madrid/Barcelona

Real/Barca, Saturday 7pm, Sky Sports 2, Free Bets, Best Odds

1 - The number of goalless draws that have occurred in the last 39 league clashes between Real Madrid and Barcelona.

2 - The number of league games Real Madrid have failed to win since Juande Ramos took charge. Their overall Liga record under the former Spurs boss is P19 W17 D1 L1, with the loss coming away to Barca in his first league match.

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3 - The number of wins Real Madrid have claimed from their last four home games against Barcelona.

Posted: May 1st, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Captain Fabregas should get off to a winning start

Arsenal/Dynamo Kiev, ITV4, 7.45pm, Best Odds, Free Bets

By refusing to comment in detail about the appointment of Cesc Fabregas as Arsenal’s new captain, Arsene Wenger has ensured that there is no sense of great anticipation surrounding tonight’s game, nor no sense that the corner is about to be turned under the Spaniard’s leadership. The good news though for Arsenal is that new captains normally get off to a winning start in North London:

BEGINNER’S LUCK
Arsenal are entering this game in terrible form with one win in five and having failed to score in three of their last four. However, the Gunners’ last three permanent captains - Patrick Vieira, Thierry Henry and William Gallas - all tasted victory in both their first home match after inheriting the armband and their first European match.

KIEV FORM CURBED
Dynamo Kiev’s twelve match domestic winning streak was finally ended in their last outing when they were beaten 1-0 by Shakthar Donetsk, the reigning champions who have started the season in a very similar fashion to Arsenal - stuck in fifth having won just seven (of sixteen) games. The Ukrainian side have also lost their seven-match unbeaten run this season in Europe after being beaten 2-1 at home to Porto having held a half-time lead.

GALLAS MAY REDEEM HIMSELF

Posted: November 25th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Can Arsenal beat Manchester United without Adebayor and van Persie?

Do Arsenal stand a chance without their first-choice strikeforce?

Arsene Wenger was adamant last season that he had a big enough squad to challenge for the title only for it to be reported as a “crisis” and used as an excuse by the Arsenal boss when they picked up a few injuries in the final months of the season. Again this summer, Wenger insisted he had enough depth but ahead of their biggest game of the season so far they have a legitimate crisis with Robin van Persie suspended, Emmanuel Adebayor injured and Eduardo still out. Will they be able to get a result without the trio?

Arsenal without Adebayor and van Persie

» There has only been one league match this season that Adebayor hasn’t started - the away game against West Ham - and on that occasion he got them out of jail when he came on by creating the opener and scoring the second.

» As well as being the Gunners’ overall top-scorer with nine goals, Adebayor has made six league assists this season, a total that only Manchester United’s Dimitar Berbatov can match.

» It’s been over a year since Adebayor last missed a league game for Arsenal. The last two he missed were the first two games of last season - a 2-1 win against Fulham and a 1-1 draw at Blackburn. While Arsenal took points in both games, it’s worth noting that van Persie scored in both.

» Van Persie appeared in fifteen league games last season. Arsenal’s record with van Persie of 2.2 points a game was marginally better than their average of 2.17 without him, although they lost two of three league games against Big Four clubs with van Persie playing, compared to none of the three that he missed.

Posted: November 7th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment