Six reasons why Leeds should fight back against Millwall

Leeds/Millwall, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Photo Credit: Daniel Hambury/PA Wire

Best friends Leeds and Millwall meet for the second time in six days tonight and it is the Londoners who travel to Yorkshire with a 1-0 advantage. Leeds have suffered plenty of play-off heartache in recent years but getting to finals hasn’t been their problem. Here are five stats which suggest they will qualify:

Click here to claim a free £25 bet with Paddy Power, who are offering evens on Leeds progressing.

1. Leeds boasted the best home record in League One this season, winning 17 of the 23 games they have hosted.

2. Their home form has been ever better under Simon Grayson, the 2007 play-off winning manager. They have won 12 straight home games, conceding just once in their last six.

3. The Whites have won their last three clashes with Millwall at Elland Road.

Posted: May 14th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Four reasons why Liverpool could still eliminate Chelsea

Chelsea/Liverpool, ITV1, 7.45pm, Free Bets, Best Odds

chickendinner wouldn’t suggest robbing a bank or breaking into your life savings to bet on Liverpool progressing but at 12/1 with Bet365 and Boylesports, it may be worth neutrals putting a few quid on them to provoke interest in tonight’s clash. Here’s our attempt to justify such a long shot:

1. Liverpool have won four of their last six matches by a margin of three goals or greater.

2. Chelsea conceded three goals in just nine minutes against Bolton, who had scored just once in six hours and 35 minutes of away football prior to that.

3. The Blues have shipped three or more at home on four separate occasions in the last 26 months - against Spurs, Leicester, Aston Villa and now Bolton.

4. Liverpool have scored three or more goals in six away games this season.

Posted: April 14th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why Manchester United can’t lose focus in the closing stages

Man Utd/Inter, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2, Free Bets, Best Odds

Rather than concentrating on their gameplan to eliminate Manchester United, Inter Milan have been busy calculating what percentage chance they stand. Jose Mourinho says 50% while Mario Balotelli goes with 45% but both are wrong as the actual figure is 33%. Here we present the case for both teams, leaving you to assess whether the 8/15 on the holders breaking the curse is better value than the 7/4 Ladbrokes are offering on Inter progressing, while providing you with useful tips on other markets:

In the red corner…

» Manchester United have won eight and lost just one of their last ten home games against Italian opposition, triumphing in their last four.

» The Red Devils are unbeaten at home in over a year in all competitions and have gone more than four years without a Champions League loss at Old Trafford, a run stretching nineteen games.

Posted: March 11th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Will Chelsea be able to finish the job in Turin?

Juventus/Chelsea, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Only 58% of teams who win the home leg of a Champions League knockout clash 1-0 have progressed to the next round, meaning that Juventus are priced far too high at 3/1 with 888sport to qualify. But while the hosts may offer good value, is Guus Hiddink’s honeymoon period really going to end in the worst way imaginable? Here are all the key statistics:

THE FORM GUIDE
Chelsea have won six successive games since sacking Luiz Felipe Scolari. The wins since Hiddink took charge have come by narrow margins though, with three of the last five finishing 1-0, one ending 2-1 and the other being their 2-0 triumph away to Coventry at the weekend. Since losing the first leg at Stamford Bridge, Juventus have beaten both Napoli and Torino 1-0 in Serie A. However, a reasonably weakened Bianconeri side lost 2-1 away to Lazio last week in their Coppa Italia semi-final.

CHELSEA IN ITALY
The Blues hadn’t played away to Italian opposition for five seasons before their 3-1 defeat to Roma in November. What made the manner of the loss even more surprising was that their previous match in Italy had been played at the same ground and they had thrashed Lazio 4-0 on that occasion. Chelsea have made five trips to Italy in the Premier League era and have a mixed record: winning one, drawing two and losing two.

JUVENTUS AGAINST ENGLISH OPPOSITION

Posted: March 10th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Mallorca are 14/1 with Bet365 to repeat their May heroics

Barcelona/Mallorca, 8.30pm, Sky Sports 3, Free Bets, Best Odds

Real Mallorca travel to Barcelona for tonight’s Copa del Rey semi-final first-leg hoping to relive their win there last May, when they came back from 2-0 down to become the only side besides Real Madrid and Villarreal to win a league match at the Nou Camp in the last three years.

Bet365 offer 14/1 on the visitors being victorious again but Barcelona haven’t lost a domestic home game since that day, with the Catalan club winning twelve and drawing just two this season. Just last month they overcame Mallorca, who are currently embroiled in a relegation battle and have won just one away game all season, 3-1.

Like Barcelona, Mallorca are unbeaten in this year’s competition which may make the 7/2 available at Paddy Power on them not losing (double chance) appetising. It is also worth noting that while Pep Guardiola’s side are the most successful in the competition’s history, they haven’t reached the final in eleven years and have lost out at this stage in the last two. Bet365 go 15/2 on Mallorca triumphing over two legs.

Posted: February 5th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Why Burnley should bow out of the Carling Cup with pride

Burnley/Tottenham, 8pm, Sky Sports 1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Anyone hoping to see Tottenham suffer the humiliation of having their 4-1 advantage overturned will probably be left disappointed. Even at their worst this season Spurs have yet to lose a game by more than two goals.

The last time they lost by a margin of three goals or greater was last March when Newcastle, yes Newcastle, thrashed them 4-1 at White Hart Lane, and even a defeat of that margin would only be enough to take the game to extra time and penalties.

Posted: January 21st, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment