Eight reasons not to back Sea The Stars in the Irish Derby

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Sea The Stars proved us wrong by beating Fame and Glory at Epsom earlier this month but we’re certain that trainer Aidan O’Brien will get revenge at the Curragh on Sunday. Here’s why:

1. Sea The Stars is attempting to complete a 2,000 Guineas, English and Irish Derby treble. The last time such a feat was managed was by Nijinsky way back in 1970.

2. Aidan O’Brien has trained six Irish Derby winners, including each of the last three and he has had 16 placed in the last decade. Second favourite Fame and Glory and Masterofthehorse are among his ten possible entries this year.

3. Four of the last six winners, including each of the last three, were all beaten in the Epsom Derby. Of this year’s entries Fame and Glory, Masterofthehorse, Golden Sword and Gan Amhras ran. Each of the last six Irish Derby winners lost their previous outing.

Posted: June 25th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Everything you need to know to bet on the Ascot Gold Cup

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Photo Credit: Sean Dempsey/PA Wire

For many, the Gold Cup is the highlight of Royal Ascot and the big story this year is whether eight-year-old Yeats will be able to defy the age trends and become the first ever four-time winner of the race. Here are some stats to help you decide whether or not to back the favourite to make history:

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Pointers

» The last ten Gold Cup winners were all drawn in even-numbered stalls, with three of the last five winners drawing stall four. Veracity will be occupying that stall this year.

» 13 of the last 16 winners had won over two miles or more prior to the race. Of this year’s ten horses, only Geordieland, Veracity, Yeats and Patkai have been victorious over that distance.

» The last nine winners all triumphed in a Group 1 or 2 race prior to their Ascot success – Sagara never has.

» Geordieland and Hindu Kush are the only horses in the field to have won their last race – five of the last six champions won their final outing before the Gold Cup.

Age and weight trends

Posted: June 17th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Get your Cheltenham Festival betting off to a strong start

Paddy Power will refund all bets if Cousin Vinny wins the opener

Cousin Vinny is the 9/4 favourite to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle - the opening race of the 2009 Cheltenham Festival. Paddy Power will refund all bets if Patrick Mullins’ mount triumphs, so you have the perfect chance to kick-off the week with a big win by backing against the favourite.

PROMISING TREND!
11 of the last 12 winners of this race had won their last race. This is good news for those backing against Cousin Vinny, who unseated his jockey on his last outing at Leopardstown.

Other key trends in this race include that nine of the last 12 winners have been aged either five or six while ten of the last 17 were Irish trained.

Second favourite Torphichen (6/1) is only four and wasn’t trained in Ireland but third and fourth favourites Go Native (10/1) and Kempes (11/1) meet all three specifications. Whether you choose to bet win or each-way on this race is entirely your choice because the money-back special applies to both.

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Posted: March 9th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment