Five reasons why Shakhtar Donetsk will lift the UEFA Cup

Shakhtar/Werder Bremen, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

None of the teams who worked tirelessly throughout last season to earn a place in the UEFA Cup could be bothered with actually trying to win it so it’s been left to two Champions League dropouts to scrap for the right to be the final ever winners of the competition. While that doesn’t sound too exciting, the teams are so closely matched that the bookies can’t decide on a favourite, setting both at 10/11 to win outright. Here’s why we fancy Shakhtar to win in 90 minutes at 2.78 on Betfair:

1. Shakhtar have won nine of their last ten matches in all competitions, drawing the other.

2. Werder Bremen on the other hand have lacked consistency, winning just four of their last eleven.

Posted: May 20th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Away wins are a rarity in UEFA Cup semi-final first-legs

Dynamo Kiev/Shakhtar Donetsk, 5.30pm, ITV4, Best Odds
Werder Bremen/Hamburg, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

While the Big Four have dominated the Champions League for two successive seasons, the Premier League’s claim to the “best league in the world” moniker is brought into question by the fact that none of the not-so-big 16 have won the UEFA Cup in the last 25 years. We’ve grown accustomed to all-English Champions League semi-finals but tonight teams from the Bundesliga and the Ukranian Premier League fight it out for the right to represent their country in a guaranteed Germany v Ukraine final:

SEMI-FINAL STATS

» The away side haven’t won a UEFA Cup semi-final first-leg in any of the last six seasons and only one of the last 18 have ended in the visitors’ favour.

» There has only been one goal in this week’s three big televised games this week and there is a danger that the drought could continue - only eight of the last 24 UEFA Cup semi-finals have broken the 2.5 goal barrier.

Posted: April 30th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Man City are 3/1 to qualify but the signs aren’t too promising

Manchester City/Hamburg, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Paddy Power and Bet365 are offering 3/1 on Manchester City overcoming their 3-1 deficit and knocking out Hamburg tonight but the statistics suggest that they will have to perform out of their skins to do so:

» Hamburg have only won five of their 14 away league games and have drawn one and lost four of their five visits to fellow Bundesliga top six sides.

» Despite this, their European record is amazing. The German side have won all five of their UEFA Cup away games, scoring 12 and conceding just three. They have scored at least two in every game and kept three clean sheets.

Posted: April 16th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Hamburg’s strong home form isn’t good news for Man City

Hamburg/Man City, Thurs 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Martin Jol’s Hamburg are available at 11/10 with Boylesports to win the home leg of their UEFA Cup quarter-final clash with Manchester City. A glance at their home record suggests that those odds are very generous:

» Hamburg have played 21 matches at the HSH Nordbank Arena, winning 16 of those, drawing three and losing just two.

» In contrast, Manchester City have won just one of their last 19 on the road, drawing seven and losing 11 of those games.

» Only five of the last 14 English UEFA Cup quarter-finalists have progressed through to the final four. Even more significantly, only one won the away leg, with nine losing it.

Posted: April 8th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Manchester City’s away form isn’t as big an issue in Europe

Aalborg/Man City, 8pm, Five, Free Bets, Best Odds

Manchester City have been waiting seven months for a domestic away win but they don’t have struggle anywhere near as much in Europe. Here are five key stats to bear in mind when betting on their trip to Aalborg tonight:

» Mark Hughes’ side have gone fourteen domestic matches on the road without keeping a clean sheet but have shut the opposition out in three of their six European away games.

» The Citizens have been beaten just once in their six UEFA Cup away games this season - winning four and drawing one. The loss came 3-1 away to Racing when City’s qualification from the group stage was already assured.

Posted: March 19th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Manchester City have an opportunity to out-do United

Manchester City/Aalborg, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

Manchester United may be on the verge of winning every trophy going and breaking records on the way but their rivals have a chance to achieve something that Sir Alex Ferguson couldn’t this season: a home win over Aalborg. The Red Devils were held 2-2 by the Danes in December and City will be looking to out-do them tonight:

Strong home team versus decent away side

» Manchester City have won five consecutive home games, conceding just two goals in the process.

» The Citizens have won three and drawn one of their four UEFA Cup games at Eastlands this season (excluding qualifiers). However the opposition scored and lost by just one goal in all three victories (2-1, 3-2, 2-1).

» Aalborg are unbeaten in seven away games and have won four of their last five on the road. They average just 1.00 points per league home game this season compared to 1.89 away.

Posted: March 12th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment