Why Genoa will boot Valencia out of the Europa League

Genoa’s formidable home record means that there is a strong chance that David Villa and co will exit Europe before Christmas.

Some bookmakers have named Valencia as second favourites to win the Europa League, even with the inclusion of eight Champions League dropouts, but their contribution to the tournament could end tonight.

We expect them to be beaten by Genoa tonight, meaning that a Lille win over Slavia Prague would leave them free to “focus on the league”. The Italians are 2.98 (just shy of 2/1) to win tonight on Betfair - here’s why that’s great value:

» They’ve lost just once at home all season - against Inter Milan

» The Rossoblu have also won all three of their Europa League games at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.

Posted: December 17th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Athletic Bilbao are 7.2 to end Barcelona’s treble bid tonight

Bilbao/Barcelona, Copa del Rey Final, 9pm, Free Bets, Best Odds

There couldn’t be a more fitting final - the two most successful teams in the competition’s history vying to become the first to win it 25 times (if you count 1902 as a Bilbao triumph). King Juan Carlos might not be looking forward to it quite as enthusiastically though given the prospect of thousands of Catalan and Basque fans jeering both him and the Spanish national anthem.

Barcelona are missing Rafael Marquez, Eric Abidal, Andres Iniesta and Thierry Henry and are struggling with fatigue ahead of their 12th match in 40 days. Here’s why Athletic Bilbao are worth backing at 7.2 with Betfair:

Click here to claim a £25 no loss bet with Betfair

» Bilbao are hitting form at the right time having won three and drawn one of their last five, killing off any danger of a relegation battle.

» They also have a massive fitness advantage having played four games less than Barcelona since the start of April.

Posted: May 13th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 1 Comment

In-form Valencia are 3/1 to end Barcelona’s amazing run

Valencia/Barcelona, Sat 9pm, Sky Sports 2, Free Bets, Best Odds

Barcelona have won a ridiculous 26 of their 32 La Liga matches this season - more than ten of the last 11 champions have managed in a whole campaign - and have lost just three times. Pep Guardiola’s side have won their last seven league games without conceding a goal and have scored 13 goals in their last three league clashes with Valencia, keeping clean sheets on every occasion. However, here’s why Unai Emery’s side stand a reasonable chance of throwing the title race wide open ahead of next week’s Clasico:

Click here to claim a £200 free bet basket with Bet365, who offer best prices on a Valencia win (3/1) and David Villa scoring (15/8)

» Valencia have won their last five matches and have scored three or more goals in three of those games.

» The cash-strapped club have won three of their last four home games against the league leaders.

Posted: April 24th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | 4 Comments

Liverpool are unlikely to do the double over Real Madrid

Liverpool/Real Madrid, 7.45pm, ITV1, Free Bets, Best Odds

Juande Ramos has promised that the “famous Anfield roar” holds no fear for his side and who can blame him when it hasn’t intimidated teams like Stoke and Hull this season. The Sun today reported that 91% of teams who win the away leg 1-0 progress, bringing into question ITV’s decision to again give Liverpool prominence over Chelsea, but while the Reds should still qualify, here are five reasons why they won’t win tonight:

1. Liverpool haven’t won consecutive home games since October. They have played twelve times at Anfield since their 1-0 win over Portsmouth over four months ago but have won just five of them.

2. Rafael Benitez’s side have won both the home and away legs of a Champions League knockout tie on just two of their last nine attempts.

3. Real Madrid have won four consecutive away games since facing Barcelona in Juande Ramos’ game. They haven’t conceded a goal throughout that run, have scored eleven times and have managed at least two goals in each game.

Posted: March 10th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Real Madrid look to make it ten in a row against Liverpool

Real Madrid/Liverpool, 7.45pm, Sky Sports 2, Offers, Best Odds

Juande Ramos took just two points from his last nine league matches as Tottenham manager but over at Real Madrid he has won each of his last nine. The Spaniard will be hoping to stretch his winning streak to double figures against Liverpool but the Reds are unbeaten in seventeen Champions League games (in 90 minutes). Here’s everything you need to know about this match:

EARLY KNOCKOUTS
Juventus, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Roma. Those are the four sides responsible for the fact that Real Madrid, the the most successful team in the competition’s history, haven’t cleared this hurdle since 2004. Ramos’ La Liga performance might be enough to rebuild his reputation after being sacked by Tottenham but in order to earn a second season at the Bernabeu, he will probably need to come closer to ending the second-longest Champions League drought in Real Madrid’s history than his predecessor managed.

PREVIOUS ENCOUNTERS

Posted: February 24th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Aston Villa meet the form side of this season’s UEFA Cup

Stats on three interesting European matches taking place tonight

Photo Credit: Misha Japaridze, AP Photo

Aston Villa v CSKA Moscow
Consider how much they have acheived this season, it is surprising just how poor Aston Villa’s home record is. Over the last six months they have won just six of their seventeen games at Villa Park, which is a 35% success rate. However, over that period they have only lost three times, while they have drawn at home on a massive eight occasions. Their opponents CSKA are the only team to have won all of their games to date in this year’s competition and are strong away, having lost just two of fifteen league games on the road last season. Villa’s defence will have their hands full against Vagner Love, who has scored seven goals in CSKA’s three away games in the competition.

Dynamo Kiev v Valencia

Posted: February 18th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment