Five reasons why Shakhtar Donetsk will lift the UEFA Cup

Shakhtar/Werder Bremen, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

None of the teams who worked tirelessly throughout last season to earn a place in the UEFA Cup could be bothered with actually trying to win it so it’s been left to two Champions League dropouts to scrap for the right to be the final ever winners of the competition. While that doesn’t sound too exciting, the teams are so closely matched that the bookies can’t decide on a favourite, setting both at 10/11 to win outright. Here’s why we fancy Shakhtar to win in 90 minutes at 2.78 on Betfair:

1. Shakhtar have won nine of their last ten matches in all competitions, drawing the other.

2. Werder Bremen on the other hand have lacked consistency, winning just four of their last eleven.

Posted: May 20th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Away wins are a rarity in UEFA Cup semi-final first-legs

Dynamo Kiev/Shakhtar Donetsk, 5.30pm, ITV4, Best Odds
Werder Bremen/Hamburg, 7.45pm, ITV4, Free Bets, Best Odds

While the Big Four have dominated the Champions League for two successive seasons, the Premier League’s claim to the “best league in the world” moniker is brought into question by the fact that none of the not-so-big 16 have won the UEFA Cup in the last 25 years. We’ve grown accustomed to all-English Champions League semi-finals but tonight teams from the Bundesliga and the Ukranian Premier League fight it out for the right to represent their country in a guaranteed Germany v Ukraine final:

SEMI-FINAL STATS

» The away side haven’t won a UEFA Cup semi-final first-leg in any of the last six seasons and only one of the last 18 have ended in the visitors’ favour.

» There has only been one goal in this week’s three big televised games this week and there is a danger that the drought could continue - only eight of the last 24 UEFA Cup semi-finals have broken the 2.5 goal barrier.

Posted: April 30th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Aston Villa meet the form side of this season’s UEFA Cup

Stats on three interesting European matches taking place tonight

Photo Credit: Misha Japaridze, AP Photo

Aston Villa v CSKA Moscow
Consider how much they have acheived this season, it is surprising just how poor Aston Villa’s home record is. Over the last six months they have won just six of their seventeen games at Villa Park, which is a 35% success rate. However, over that period they have only lost three times, while they have drawn at home on a massive eight occasions. Their opponents CSKA are the only team to have won all of their games to date in this year’s competition and are strong away, having lost just two of fifteen league games on the road last season. Villa’s defence will have their hands full against Vagner Love, who has scored seven goals in CSKA’s three away games in the competition.

Dynamo Kiev v Valencia

Posted: February 18th, 2009 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment

Is the demise of the home win specific to English football?

chickendinner sees if away wins are on the rise in the continent

On Monday, chickendinner revealed that the current percentage of away wins in the Premier League (34%) is the highest it has ever been in the English top-flight. Today we have expanded our research to look at some of the big three European leagues - La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga - to see if the same trend of away wins rising and home wins falling is present there:

La Liga
This season there has been a 48% home win rate with 29% away wins in Spain’s top tier, creating a margin of 19% compared to just 7% in the Premier League. There is no sign of away wins becoming more common in Spain recently, as 29% was the figure in both the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons. The average of the ten seasons prior to this one was 26% but the figure has remained constant for two-and-a-half seasons now and is still lower than that of the Premier League’s.

Serie A

Posted: December 17th, 2008 by Michael Lintorn | Add Comment